Session 2026-10-05 · signal_gen MNQ · updated daily after 17:00 ET
up (+117pt over the session), dominant regime R4; strategy mix {'survival_orb': 1}
The survival_orb bot went long at 10:20 on a 163-pt opening range and rode a one-way trend day up 117 points, holding 325 bars until the 15:45 ET EOD flatten for +$234. The 2R target (~326 pts, 31544) was never close, so the exit came from the time-based flatten and not from the target or stop. Price was still near the high of the day at the close, so holding paid off this time.
Butterfly: center the body near 7775.0, wings around 7771.7/7776.6. Per-source levels — v82: 7775.0/7775.0 · v83: 7775.0/7775.0 · v51a: 7771.7/7776.6.
| Date | Predicted | Range | Actual | Error (pt) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 7807.5 | 7805.0 – 7810.0 | 7806.5 | 1.0 |
| 2026-10-09 | 7810.0 | 7810.0 – 7810.0 | 7810.5 | 0.5 |
| 2026-10-08 | 7765.0 | 7765.0 – 7765.0 | 7766.8 | 1.8 |
| 2026-10-07 | 7800.0 | 7785.0 – 7805.0 | 7801.5 | 1.5 |
| 2026-10-06 | 7820.0 | 7816.0 – 7825.9 | 7819.2 | 0.8 |
| 2026-10-05 | 7775.0 | 7771.7 – 7776.6 | 7773.9 | 1.1 |
| 2026-10-02 | 7722.5 | 7693.4 – 7743.0 | 7722.9 | 0.4 |
| 2026-10-01 | 7665.6 | 7663.1 – 7670.0 | 7665.1 | 0.5 |
| 2026-09-30 | 7662.5 | 7648.1 – 7665.0 | 7652.6 | 9.9 |
| 2026-09-29 | 7672.5 | 7665.0 – 7680.0 | 7669.3 | 3.2 |
| 2026-09-28 | 7685.0 | 7682.9 – 7687.9 | 7683.9 | 1.1 |
| 2026-09-25 | 7740.9 | 7670.0 – 7745.0 | 7743.6 | 2.7 |
| 2026-09-24 | 7705.0 | 7702.6 – 7707.6 | 7704.4 | 0.6 |
| 2026-09-23 | 7702.5 | 7700.0 – 7708.4 | 7704.9 | 2.5 |
| 2026-09-22 | 7765.5 | 7765.0 – 7770.0 | 7765.5 | 0.0 |
| Instrument | Close | Change | % | Range | Trend | Support | Resistance | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 7773.95 | 43.1 | 0.56% | 66.8 | up | 7775 | 7775 | S&P 500 cash index (Yahoo); GEX walls 7775.0/7775.0 |
| ES | 7830.00 | 48.5 | 0.62% | 87.3 | up | — | — | S&P 500 future (Yahoo ES=F) |
| NQ/MNQ | 31339.75 | 251.8 | 0.81% | 409.8 | up | — | — | Nasdaq-100 future MNQ |
| NDX | 31076.44 | 263.7 | 0.86% | 318.9 | up | — | — | Nasdaq-100 cash index (Yahoo) |
| Window | aiprediction | Our result | Move | Missed $ | Reason | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| session | bullish | profit | 251.8 | — | ok | aiprediction trend=bullish, actual MNQ move=251.8pt (up); our session net=$234.0 (profit) |
| Entry | Strat | Dir | In | Out | Pts | P/L | Exit | Grade | Lesson |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:20 AM | survival_orb | long | 31218.25 | 31335.25 | 117.0 | $234.00 | eod_flatten(15:45 ET, now 15:45) | good_entry | Keep holding trend-day ORB longs to the 15:45 flatten, but consider a partial or trailing exit since the full 2R target was unlikely to be reached. |
| Date | Trades | Win% | PF | Net P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 1 | 100% | — | $50.50 |
| 2026-10-09 | 1 | 0% | 0 | $-134.50 |
| 2026-10-08 | 1 | 0% | 0 | $-162.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | 1 | 0% | 0 | $-159.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | 1 | 100% | — | $234.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | 1 | 0% | 0 | $-251.50 |
| 2026-09-30 | 1 | 0% | 0 | $-42.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | 7 | 0% | 0 | $-405.50 |
| 2026-09-25 | 7 | 14.3% | 0.02 | $-558.50 |
| 2026-09-24 | 7 | 0% | 0 | $-427.50 |
| 2026-09-16 | 1 | 0% | 0 | $-1055.00 |
| 2026-09-02 | 1 | 0% | 0 | $-164.50 |
| 2026-08-28 | 7 | 14.3% | 0.18 | $-247.00 |
| 2026-08-27 | 8 | 37.5% | 0.52 | $-134.50 |
| 2026-08-26 | 5 | 60% | 2.66 | $207.50 |
| 2026-08-25 | 7 | 42.9% | 0.37 | $-98.50 |
| 2026-08-24 | 6 | 16.7% | 0.34 | $-165.50 |
| 2026-08-21 | 5 | 40% | 0.23 | $-76.00 |
| 2026-08-20 | 16 | 25% | 0.11 | $-503.00 |
| 2026-08-19 | 12 | 8.3% | 0.01 | $-394.50 |
| 2026-08-18 | 22 | 27.3% | 0.75 | $-182.50 |
| 2026-08-17 | 7 | 14.3% | 0.17 | $-210.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | 26 | 15.4% | 0.55 | $-286.50 |
| 2026-08-13 | 19 | 47.4% | 3.21 | $580.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | 34 | 35.3% | 0.29 | $-1150.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | 28 | 21.4% | 0.4 | $-741.50 |
| 2026-08-10 | 18 | 16.7% | 0.03 | $-1030.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | 15 | 26.7% | 0.05 | $-512.00 |
| 2026-08-06 | 25 | 32% | 1.07 | $52.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | 19 | 26.3% | 0.32 | $-440.50 |