Session 2026-07-27 · signal_gen MNQ · updated daily after 17:00 ET
down (-436pt over the session), dominant regime R2; strategy mix {'llm': 29, 'trend_ma': 5, 'ribbon': 3, 'short5m': 1, 'selloff': 5, 'ha_long': 6}
Session was net positive (+$152 on 49 trades, 29 wins) despite an 436pt down day, mostly because llm (+$127.5 over 29 trades) and ribbon (+$80) carried the book while trend_ma, ha_long, and selloff bled money. The biggest single leak was tick_sl (-$235.5 across 5 trades), almost all fixed 25pt stops getting clipped on the first bar despite ATR often being 15-20pt, i.e. stop distance too tight relative to volatility. be_lock_tick exits repeatedly gave back 40-50% of peak profit on fast movers, and the selloff strategy's zero-score mechanical triggers (SL 300/TP 500, 57-60 bar holds) produced the largest single loss (-$77.5) alongside one lucky +$118.5 outlier.
Butterfly: center the body near 7412.5, wings around 7405.0/7415.0. Per-source levels — v82: 7410.0/7415.0 · v83: 7405.0/7415.0 · v51a: 7415.0/7410.0.
| Date | Predicted | Range | Actual | Error (pt) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | 7747.5 | 7745.0 – 7753.2 | 7748.5 | 1.0 |
| 2026-08-11 | 7720.0 | 7720.0 – 7725.0 | 7722.5 | 2.5 |
| 2026-08-10 | 7750.0 | 7750.0 – 7750.0 | 7749.8 | 0.2 |
| 2026-08-07 | 7756.6 | 7750.0 – 7760.0 | 7758.1 | 1.5 |
| 2026-08-06 | 7707.5 | 7705.0 – 7710.0 | 7710.1 | 2.6 |
| 2026-08-05 | 7729.9 | 7730.0 – 7735.0 | 7731.9 | 2.0 |
| 2026-08-04 | 7742.5 | 7736.5 – 7745.0 | 7736.5 | 6.0 |
| 2026-08-03 | 7597.5 | 7500.0 – 7602.0 | 7598.8 | 1.3 |
| 2026-07-31 | 7488.3 | 7400.0 – 7500.0 | 7489.8 | 1.5 |
| 2026-07-30 | 7438.7 | 7410.0 – 7440.0 | 7438.0 | 0.7 |
| 2026-07-29 | 7309.9 | 7312.4 – 7325.0 | 7314.4 | 4.5 |
| 2026-07-28 | 7427.5 | 7425.0 – 7430.0 | 7428.9 | 1.4 |
| 2026-07-27 | 7412.5 | 7405.0 – 7415.0 | 7413.0 | 0.5 |
| 2026-07-24 | 7410.0 | 7400.0 – 7410.0 | 7408.5 | 1.5 |
| 2026-07-23 | 7406.1 | 7400.0 – 7410.0 | 7408.1 | 2.0 |
| Instrument | Close | Change | % | Range | Trend | Support | Resistance | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 7413.18 | -51.0 | -0.68% | 97.8 | down | 7410 | 7415 | S&P 500 cash index (Yahoo); GEX walls 7410.0/7415.0 |
| ES | 7453.50 | -36.5 | -0.49% | 108.5 | down | — | — | S&P 500 future (Yahoo ES=F) |
| NQ/MNQ | 28198.75 | -326.0 | -1.14% | 824.5 | down | — | — | Nasdaq-100 future MNQU6 |
| NDX | 28039.21 | -373.1 | -1.31% | 673.7 | down | — | — | Nasdaq-100 cash index (Yahoo) |
| Time | Dir | Module | Suppressed by | Hypo +15m | Hypo +60m | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:05 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-37.00 | $-1.00 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=83 |
| 06:05 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-37.00 | $-1.00 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=84 |
| 06:06 PM | — | +1 | ? | — | — | +1 ribbon_stack_up(age=1) |
| 06:06 PM | — | +1 | ? | — | — | +1 ribbon_stack_up(age=1) |
| 06:07 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-17.50 | $13.50 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=82 |
| 06:08 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-37.50 | $-19.00 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=78 |
| 06:09 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-32.50 | $-56.00 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=76 |
| 06:10 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-38.50 | $-66.50 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=72 |
| 06:11 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-65.50 | $-74.00 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=70 |
| 06:15 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-29.50 | $-47.00 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=73 |
| 06:17 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-64.00 | $-42.50 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=75 |
| 06:18 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-18.50 | $-0.50 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=70 |
| 06:19 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-4.00 | $33.50 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=73 |
| 06:20 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $27.00 | $50.50 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=76 |
| 06:21 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-1.00 | $47.00 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=72 |
| 06:24 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-4.00 | $28.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 06:25 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-13.00 | $6.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 06:26 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-22.50 | $-4.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 06:27 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $5.50 | $17.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 06:42 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $26.00 | $-67.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 06:43 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $41.00 | $-67.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 06:44 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $29.50 | $-51.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 06:45 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $47.00 | $-40.50 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 06:51 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $39.00 | $-147.00 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=73 |
| 07:10 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $29.50 | $19.50 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 07:10 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $29.50 | $19.50 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=74 |
| 07:11 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $24.00 | $-12.50 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 07:12 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $25.50 | $-13.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 07:12 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $25.50 | $-13.00 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=70 |
| 07:13 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $21.00 | $-53.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 07:14 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $24.00 | $-62.50 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 07:15 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $18.00 | $-25.50 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 07:16 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $46.00 | $-2.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 07:31 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-83.50 | $-11.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 07:34 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-127.00 | $-27.50 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 07:35 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-126.00 | $-8.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 07:36 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-153.00 | $12.50 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 07:37 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-169.50 | $35.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 07:38 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-141.00 | $35.50 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 07:39 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-140.50 | $49.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 07:40 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-127.50 | $51.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 07:41 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-121.50 | $35.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 07:42 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-78.50 | $107.50 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=81 |
| 07:43 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-104.50 | $93.50 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=82 |
| 07:44 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-134.50 | $118.00 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=76 |
| 07:46 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-64.50 | $48.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 07:47 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $3.00 | $112.50 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 07:47 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $3.00 | $112.50 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=70 |
| 07:48 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $56.00 | $100.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 07:48 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $56.00 | $100.00 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=74 |
| 07:49 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $128.50 | $127.50 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 07:49 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $128.50 | $127.50 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=80 |
| 07:50 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $89.50 | $97.00 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=80 |
| 07:51 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $96.50 | $84.50 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=82 |
| 07:52 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $169.50 | $155.00 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=86 |
| 07:53 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $177.00 | $172.50 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=87 |
| 07:54 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $144.50 | $150.50 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=73 |
| 07:55 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $148.50 | $179.50 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=70 |
| 07:59 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $108.00 | $219.50 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=75 |
| 08:00 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $162.00 | $232.00 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=80 |
| 08:03 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $122.00 | $130.50 | -1 bearish_div px28720>28734 rsi87>80 |
| 08:49 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-55.50 | $-36.00 | +1 bullish_div px28600<28598 rsi31<38 |
| 08:50 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-47.00 | $-95.00 | +1 bullish_div px28600<28598 rsi31<38 |
| 09:10 PM | short | -1 | news_gate BULLISH c=0.6 | $124.00 | $-4.00 | -1 short5m fast-dn(SMA20) rsi5=46 r5max=52 sl=36.8 |
| 09:17 PM | — | +1 | ? | — | — | +1 rsi_fade long rsi=26 (eve) |
| 10:33 PM | long | +1 | reconcile quarantine 103s | $26.50 | $-8.50 | +1 golden_cross sma50x200 | llm-ok |
| 10:36 PM | long | +1 | cooldown 19s<30s | $5.00 | $-16.00 | +1 ha_long regime-hold(run=6) rsi5=52 sl=19.1 |
| 10:48 PM | short | -1 | cooldown 23s<30s | $60.50 | $68.50 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 10:50 PM | — | +1 | ? | — | — | +1 rsi_fade long rsi=27 (eve) |
| 10:50 PM | long | +1 | cooldown 22s<30s | $-15.50 | $-34.50 | +1 rsi_fade long rsi=27 (eve) | llm-ok |
| 11:01 PM | short | -1 | news_gate BULLISH c=0.62 | $-7.50 | $45.50 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 08:37 AM | long | +1 | cooldown 25s<30s | $39.50 | $-132.50 | +1 llm_trigger Higher-low twin bottoms 28634/28636, RSI oversol |
| 08:38 AM | short | -1 | news_gate BULLISH c=0.6 | $-54.00 | $224.00 | -1 ict_short sweep>28660 reclaim28658 rsi61 div |
| 08:40 AM | short | -1 | news_gate BULLISH c=0.6 | $-48.00 | $313.00 | -1 rsi_cross_down_70 |
| 09:20 AM | — | +1 | ? | — | — | +1 rsi_fade long rsi=28 (eve) |
| 09:40 AM | — | ? | — | — | ||
| 09:42 AM | — | ? | — | — | ||
| 09:54 AM | — | ? | — | — | ||
| 10:54 AM | — | ? | — | — | ||
| 10:55 AM | — | ? | — | — | ||
| 11:02 AM | — | ? | — | — | ||
| 11:03 AM | — | ? | — | — | ||
| 11:04 AM | — | ? | — | — | ||
| 11:07 AM | — | ? | — | — | ||
| 11:08 AM | — | ? | — | — | ||
| 11:20 AM | — | ? | — | — | ||
| 11:20 AM | — | ? | — | — | ||
| 11:47 AM | — | ? | — | — | ||
| 12:05 PM | short | -1 | news_gate BULLISH c=0.6 | $104.00 | $234.00 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=89 |
| 12:06 PM | short | -1 | news_gate BULLISH c=0.6 | $122.50 | $218.00 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=87 |
| 12:07 PM | short | -1 | news_gate BULLISH c=0.6 | $80.00 | $173.50 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=80 |
| 12:08 PM | short | -1 | news_gate BULLISH c=0.6 | $54.00 | $172.00 | -1 rsi_cross_down_70 |
| 12:09 PM | short | -1 | news_gate BULLISH c=0.6 | $39.00 | $197.50 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 12:09 PM | short | -1 | news_gate BULLISH c=0.6 | $39.00 | $197.50 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=74 |
| 12:10 PM | short | -1 | news_gate BULLISH c=0.6 | $-113.00 | $208.50 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 12:10 PM | short | -1 | news_gate BULLISH c=0.6 | $-113.00 | $208.50 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=78 |
| 12:11 PM | short | -1 | news_gate BULLISH c=0.6 | $-24.50 | $277.50 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 12:11 PM | short | -1 | news_gate BULLISH c=0.6 | $-24.50 | $277.50 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=84 |
| 01:36 PM | — | ? | — | — | ||
| 01:37 PM | — | ? | — | — | ||
| 01:39 PM | — | ? | — | — | ||
| 01:42 PM | — | ? | — | — | ||
| 02:05 PM | short | -1 | news_gate BULLISH c=0.6 | $66.00 | $-156.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 02:06 PM | short | -1 | news_gate BULLISH c=0.6 | $82.50 | $-188.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 02:07 PM | short | -1 | news_gate BULLISH c=0.6 | $73.00 | $-251.50 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 02:08 PM | short | -1 | news_gate BULLISH c=0.6 | $75.00 | $-217.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 02:10 PM | short | -1 | news_gate BULLISH c=0.6 | $37.50 | $-256.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 02:11 PM | short | -1 | news_gate BULLISH c=0.6 | $33.50 | $-250.50 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 02:12 PM | short | -1 | news_gate BULLISH c=0.6 | $45.00 | $-230.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 02:13 PM | short | -1 | news_gate BULLISH c=0.6 | $63.00 | $-191.50 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 02:32 PM | long | +1 | cooldown 20s<30s | $80.00 | $397.00 | +1 golden_cross sma50x200 |
| 02:56 PM | — | +1 | ? | — | — | +1 ribbon_stack_up(age=1) |
| 03:25 PM | long | +1 | cooldown 10s<30s | $-58.50 | $-77.00 | +1 llm_trigger 5m/15m uptrend, dip to EMA13 reclaiming, no dive |
| 03:29 PM | — | ? | — | — |
| Window | aiprediction | Our result | Move | Missed $ | Reason | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| session | bearish | profit | -326.0 | — | ok | aiprediction trend=bearish, actual MNQ move=-326.0pt (down); our session net=$152.0 (profit) |
| Entry | Strat | Dir | In | Out | Pts | P/L | Exit | Grade | Lesson |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:14 PM | llm | long | 28662.00 | 28649.25 | -12.8 | $-25.50 | ha10s_loss_cut | good_entry | Widen the initial stop (or delay the hard-cut trigger) relative to ATR so valid setups aren't shaken out on the very first bar. |
| 08:17 PM | llm | long | 28621.00 | 28603.50 | -17.5 | $-35.00 | sma50_touch | mistake | Size the stop to at least 1x ATR (here ~20pts) instead of a fixed 25pts, or skip the dip-buy when ATR eats most of the stop distance. |
| 08:45 PM | llm | long | 28611.75 | 28623.50 | 11.8 | $23.50 | sma50_touch | good_exit | When price tags a key moving-average resistance within the first bar of a fast-scalp entry, take the quick win instead of holding for the full TP. |
| 08:47 PM | llm | long | 28609.75 | 28647.50 | 37.8 | $75.50 | be_lock_tick peaked+46.2pt gaveback_to+37.8pt | good_entry | Consider trailing the be_lock stop wider once profit exceeds 40pt to capture more of strong divergence-driven runs before giveback. |
| 09:11 PM | llm | short | 28589.75 | 28584.50 | 5.3 | $10.50 | trend_ride_end:sma_invalidate | good_exit | Fine as-is; low-score/short-hold trend fades should target quick scratch exits like this rather than holding for the full TP. |
| 09:13 PM | llm | short | 28572.00 | 28570.00 | 2.0 | $4.00 | trend_ride_end:sma_invalidate | good_exit | Quick trend_ride_end exits on sma_invalidate are working as intended — let small scratches like this go rather than widening stops to chase the target. |
| 09:20 PM | ribbon | short | 28549.25 | 28544.50 | 4.8 | $9.50 | rsi_extreme_exit(rsi=26) | good_exit | Tighten TP expectations on marginal-strength signals since the rsi_extreme_exit rule is doing the real work of locking in small wins. |
| 09:34 PM | llm | long | 28575.00 | 28575.00 | 0.0 | $0.00 | llm_rescue_exit:Price lost both EMAs, HA flipped red, 5m | unlucky | Scratching fast on early trend-failure signals (HA flip + dual EMA loss) is working as intended — no change needed here. |
| 09:37 PM | llm | long | 28581.50 | 28604.00 | 22.5 | $45.00 | be_lock_tick peaked+31.0pt gaveback_to+22.5pt | good_exit | Consider trailing tighter or scaling out near momentum peaks to capture more of the +31pt high before giveback. |
| 09:41 PM | llm | long | 28592.75 | 28600.50 | 7.8 | $15.50 | be_lock_tick peaked+16.8pt gaveback_to+7.8pt | good_exit | Consider trailing tighter than 16.8→7.8pt gaveback on fast 2-bar movers to lock in more of the peak. |
| 09:43 PM | llm | long | 28577.75 | 28585.00 | 7.3 | $14.50 | be_lock_tick peaked+15.2pt gaveback_to+7.2pt | good_exit | Consider tightening the be_lock trail after a fast, sharp spike to lock in more of a quick peak instead of giving back ~50%. |
| 09:45 PM | llm | long | 28585.50 | 28597.75 | 6.0 | $24.00 | be_lock_tick peaked+18.0pt gaveback_to+6.0pt | good_exit | be_lock is doing its job here—consider whether the giveback threshold (18pt peak to 6pt exit = 12pt given back) is wider than needed for a 20pt-ATR name. |
| 09:49 PM | llm | long | 28605.25 | 28580.00 | -25.3 | $-50.50 | tick_sl | mistake | Widen the stop relative to ATR or require stronger confirmation before dip-buy entries to avoid single-bar noise stops. |
| 09:50 PM | llm | long | 28576.75 | 28595.50 | 18.8 | $37.50 | be_lock_tick peaked+27.0pt gaveback_to+18.8pt | good_exit | Consider whether the be_lock_tick trail distance is too wide relative to typical ATR-scale pullbacks, since it surrendered ~30% of peak gain on a fast 2-bar move. |
| 09:52 PM | ha_long | long | 28596.50 | 28594.00 | -2.5 | $-5.00 | llm_rescue_exit:5m TREND neutral (no cover), 1m HA red x | unlucky | Widen the minimum-hold or rescue-trigger threshold so a single opposing 1m bar can't override a fresh entry within its first bar. |
| 09:59 PM | llm | long | 28617.25 | 28596.00 | -21.3 | $-42.50 | ha10s_loss_cut | unlucky | Consider whether ha10s_loss_cut is stopping trades out too early relative to ATR (15.8) — a stop under ~1.3x ATR on a dip-buy may not give the trade room to work. |
| 10:24 PM | trend_ma | long | 28625.50 | 28641.50 | 16.0 | $32.00 | be_lock_tick peaked+24.5pt gaveback_to+16.0pt | good_exit | Consider trailing tighter or scaling out near peak, since giving back a third of the run (24.5→16.0) is the recurring cost of a loose be_lock. |
| 10:26 PM | ribbon | long | 28636.75 | 28644.25 | 7.5 | $15.00 | be_lock_tick peaked+15.8pt gaveback_to+7.5pt | marginal | Tighten the be_lock trail distance so winners don't surrender more than ~30% of peak gain. |
| 10:46 PM | ha_long | long | 28647.50 | 28631.00 | -16.5 | $-33.00 | tick_sl | unlucky | No change needed; this is an acceptable-loss outcome from a well-formed entry, not a signal to retune. |
| 11:03 PM | selloff | short | 28609.00 | 28612.00 | -3.0 | $-6.00 | selloff_rsi30_cover | unlucky | Require a minimum score/RSI threshold before entry instead of firing on a zero-confidence trigger. |
| 12:11 AM | trend_ma | short | 28604.75 | 28617.00 | -12.3 | $-24.50 | sma50_touch | mistake | Require price to hold below the crossed MA for confirmation before entering, not just the cross signal alone. |
| 12:39 AM | trend_ma | long | 28640.25 | 28651.50 | 11.3 | $22.50 | be_lock_tick peaked+21.5pt gaveback_to+11.2pt | good_exit | Consider tightening the be_lock trail distance so peak-to-exit gaveback (21.5→11.2, ~48%) shrinks on similar golden-cross trades. |
| 12:55 AM | ha_long | long | 28649.00 | 28660.75 | 11.8 | $23.50 | be_lock_tick peaked+23.0pt gaveback_to+11.8pt | good_entry | Tighten or step the be_lock_tick trail once a trade extends 2x+ past breakeven so peak gains aren't given back to nearly 50%. |
| 01:27 AM | llm | long | 28678.50 | 28691.25 | 12.8 | $25.50 | ride_giveback_cap peaked+25.5pt gaveback_to+12.8pt (cap 12.8pt) | good_exit | When a ride peaks well beyond the giveback cap, consider a second tier that locks more of the peak before it decays to the floor. |
| 01:58 AM | llm | long | 28694.50 | 28704.00 | 9.5 | $19.00 | be_lock_tick peaked+18.0pt gaveback_to+9.5pt | good_exit | Consider trailing tighter once price extends 2x+ past the initial target to lock more of a fast spike. |
| 02:11 AM | llm | long | 28716.25 | 28703.00 | -13.3 | $-26.50 | sma50_touch | marginal | Require tighter alignment between the ML probability and RSI/MACD confluence before sizing into borderline scores near 55-60. |
| 02:24 AM | selloff | short | 28701.75 | 28716.25 | -14.5 | $-29.00 | selloff_rsi30_cover | unlucky | Size SL/TP relative to current ATR instead of fixed points so low-volatility chop doesn't get held 60 bars for a marginal loss. |
| 03:42 AM | trend_ma | short | 28684.25 | 28697.25 | -13.0 | $-26.00 | ha10s_loss_cut | unlucky | Widen or disable the HA10s early-exit for trend_ma shorts so a valid setup isn't stopped out by normal noise before the wide TP can develop. |
| 04:05 AM | llm | short | 28680.75 | 28690.25 | -9.5 | $-19.00 | sma50_touch | marginal | Require RSI >60-65 (true extension) before taking sell-the-rip shorts, not neutral readings near 45-50. |
| 04:09 AM | selloff | short | 28684.25 | 28723.00 | -38.8 | $-77.50 | selloff_rsi30_cover | mistake | Require a minimum score/RSI confirmation threshold before acting on HA cross-down signals in a flat-SMA (chop) regime. |
| 05:10 AM | ha_long | long | 28730.50 | 28726.00 | -4.5 | $-9.00 | ha_long_ha_cross_exit | good_exit | The ha_cross_exit is doing its job cutting weak pullback-flips early — keep it, don't loosen it to chase full SL/TP on this setup. |
| 05:35 AM | ha_long | long | 28740.50 | 28752.25 | 11.8 | $23.50 | be_lock_tick peaked+21.8pt gaveback_to+11.8pt | good_entry | Tighten the trail step once profit exceeds ~15-20pt so peak gains aren't given back to a single reversal. |
| 05:48 AM | ha_long | long | 28752.00 | 28733.00 | -19.0 | $-38.00 | ha_long_ride_cross_exit | unlucky | Consider tightening the ride-cross exit or adding a partial-profit rule so momentum trades don't round-trip back to a loss. |
| 06:29 AM | selloff | short | 28738.00 | 28678.75 | 59.3 | $118.50 | selloff_rsi30_cover | good_exit | Don't let a score of 0.0 trigger a trade — require minimum signal strength before entry, even when the mechanical trigger fires. |
| 07:39 AM | selloff | long | 28678.75 | 28673.25 | -5.5 | $-11.00 | selloff_rebound_exit:weak_daily_low | unlucky | Require a nonzero/valid score-rsi reading before firing a rebound entry, and consider tightening exit once price stalls below the fib target rather than riding it into a new low. |
| 08:10 AM | short5m | short | 28667.50 | 28650.75 | 16.8 | $33.50 | ride_giveback_cap peaked+33.8pt gaveback_to+16.8pt (cap 16.9pt) | good_entry | On trades that run 2x+ past the giveback cap, tighten the trail earlier instead of letting a full third of peak profit erode before capping. |
| 08:32 AM | llm | short | 28635.00 | 28660.00 | -25.0 | $-50.00 | tick_sl | good_entry | Consider giving llm_trigger shorts slightly more room or a time-based confirmation before the SL, since the thesis (trend down) wasn't actually invalidated by a 25pt wick. |
| 08:43 AM | llm | long | 28667.00 | 28670.50 | 3.5 | $7.00 | trend_ride_end:htf_flip | good_exit | Respect htf_flip exits even after 1 bar—protecting a small win beats holding into a reversing higher-timeframe trend. |
| 08:45 AM | llm | long | 28672.00 | 28679.00 | 7.0 | $14.00 | trend_ride_end:htf_flip | good_exit | Keep honoring the trend_ride_end exit signal on 1-bar scalps instead of letting a small winner run into a flip. |
| 08:54 AM | llm | long | 28690.25 | 28691.00 | 0.8 | $1.50 | trend_ride_end:htf_flip | good_exit | Treat sub-1pt trend_ride_end exits as noise, not signal quality feedback — the entry logic doesn't need adjustment from this trade. |
| 09:22 AM | llm | short | 28640.00 | 28634.00 | 6.0 | $12.00 | rsi_extreme_exit(rsi=28) | good_entry | With a 25pt SL and 150pt TP framework, a 2-bar rsi_extreme_exit for +6pts leaves most of the edge on the table — consider trailing rather than an early RSI-extreme bailout on confirmed-trend entries. |
| 11:17 AM | llm | short | 28077.25 | 28063.50 | 13.8 | $27.50 | ride_giveback_cap peaked+28.2pt gaveback_to+13.8pt (cap 14.1pt) | good_exit | The ride_giveback_cap is doing its job here — consider whether a tighter cap could have preserved more of that +28pt peak. |
| 11:18 AM | llm | short | 28080.00 | 28106.00 | -26.0 | $-52.00 | tick_sl | good_entry | Widen SL relative to ATR (or use a small confirmation delay) on llm-trigger shorts so a sound setup isn't stopped by a 1-bar wick smaller than average range. |
| 01:00 PM | ribbon | short | 28049.75 | 28022.00 | 27.8 | $55.50 | rsi_extreme_exit(rsi=20) | good_exit | Keep using rsi_extreme_exit to lock in fast intrabar moves rather than holding for the full TP. |
| 02:00 PM | llm | long | 28099.50 | 28111.50 | 12.0 | $24.00 | be_lock_tick peaked+21.0pt gaveback_to+12.0pt | good_exit | Consider trailing tighter or scaling out near peak to capture more than 57% of the max favorable excursion on 1-bar holds. |
| 02:01 PM | llm | long | 28104.75 | 28105.75 | 1.0 | $2.00 | trend_ride_end:htf_flip | good_exit | On a high-conviction confluence entry, give the trend-ride exit more room (e.g. require 2 confirming HTF flip bars) before bailing on a same-direction 4-bar hold. |
| 02:29 PM | trend_ma | long | 28081.75 | 28056.75 | -25.0 | $-50.00 | tick_sl | mistake | On golden_cross entries, size the stop to at least 2-2.5x ATR (or use a structure-based stop) instead of a fixed 25pt tick_sl. |
| 03:12 PM | llm | long | 28210.50 | 28222.00 | 11.5 | $23.00 | be_lock_tick peaked+25.0pt gaveback_to+11.5pt | good_exit | Tighten the be_lock giveback threshold so trades that peak well above TP-adjacent levels lock in more than 46% of the max favorable excursion. |
| 03:25 PM | llm | long | 28215.00 | 28226.50 | 11.5 | $23.00 | be_lock_tick peaked+20.0pt gaveback_to+11.5pt | good_exit | Consider trailing tighter than 8.5pt once price is 20pt+ in profit to protect more of the peak gain. |
| Date | Trades | Win% | PF | Net P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | 34 | 35.3% | 0.29 | $-1150.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | 28 | 21.4% | 0.4 | $-741.50 |
| 2026-08-10 | 18 | 16.7% | 0.03 | $-1030.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | 15 | 26.7% | 0.05 | $-512.00 |
| 2026-08-06 | 25 | 32% | 1.07 | $52.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | 19 | 26.3% | 0.32 | $-440.50 |
| 2026-08-04 | 16 | 31.2% | 5.55 | $1641.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | 23 | 30.4% | 0.67 | $-244.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | 25 | 36% | 0.67 | $-303.00 |
| 2026-07-30 | 62 | 54.8% | 1.1 | $102.50 |
| 2026-07-29 | 49 | 49% | 0.14 | $-3827.00 |
| 2026-07-28 | 68 | 51.5% | 39.88 | $41254.50 |
| 2026-07-27 | 49 | 59.2% | 1.25 | $152.00 |
| 2026-07-24 | 54 | 48.1% | 0.68 | $-305.50 |
| 2026-07-23 | 53 | 49.1% | 0.88 | $-94.00 |
| 2026-07-22 | 31 | 51.6% | 0.65 | $-157.50 |
| 2026-07-21 | 49 | 38.8% | 0.31 | $-1243.50 |
| 2026-07-20 | 15 | 46.7% | 0.3 | $-502.50 |
| 2026-07-17 | 11 | 36.4% | 0.42 | $-202.00 |
| 2026-07-16 | 72 | 43.1% | 0.5 | $-696.50 |
| 2026-07-15 | 46 | 65.2% | 1.44 | $361.50 |
| 2026-07-14 | 212 | 49.5% | 0.84 | $-445.00 |
| 2026-07-13 | 57 | 64.9% | 1.26 | $133.50 |
| 2026-07-03 | 39 | 35.9% | 0.62 | $-188.00 |
| 2026-07-02 | 77 | 36.4% | 0.91 | $-67.00 |
| 2026-07-01 | 45 | 37.8% | 0.73 | $-134.00 |
| 2026-06-30 | 53 | 39.6% | 0.84 | $-120.00 |
| 2026-06-29 | 39 | 51.3% | 1.35 | $589.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | 22 | 54.5% | 0.92 | $-139.00 |
| 2026-06-25 | 54 | 42.6% | 1.08 | $110.00 |