Trading Report

Session 2026-07-23 Β· signal_gen MNQ Β· updated daily after 17:00 ET

Events: TMUS earnings (pre-market); INTC earnings (after-hours)
down, high-vol, MNQ move -393.0pt, range 850.5pt
Net P/L
$-94.00
Trades
53
Win rate
49.1%
Profit factor
0.88
Best / Worst
$165.00 / $-135.50
Avg hold
2.4m

Day Summary

down (-568pt over the session), dominant regime R4; strategy mix {'llm': 30, 'trend_ma': 14, 'ribbon': 2, 'selloff': 4, 'ha_long': 2, 'ict': 1}

MNQ ground down -568pt in a persistent R4 regime; the bot took 53 trades (26 wins) but finished net -$94 as trend-following entries (trend_ma -$104.5, ribbon -$151.5, ict -$58) got chopped up while the selloff strategy's RSI30-cover shorts were the standout (+$181 on just 4 trades). The dominant loss driver was tick_sl (8 trades, -$512), many stopping out at 0-1 bars right after entry, and several overseer_cover exits fired at exactly 0 bars held for $0, suggesting a twitchy same-bar kill on otherwise clean signals. The llm strategy carried volume (30 trades) to a small net positive (+$40.5) mainly via rsi_extreme_exit and be_lock_tick scalps, but repeated 15-30pt peak-to-giveback trades show the trail is often too loose for 1-bar spikes and too tight elsewhere.

- Tighten or ATR-scale initial stops (esp. ribbon/ict/trend_ma) β€” 0-1 bar tick_sl stopouts on fresh entries (-$512 total) point to noise-driven whipsaw, not thesis failure. - Investigate and likely dampen the overseer_cover trigger β€” multiple 0-bar, $0 covers on trend_ma/llm golden-cross and reclaim setups are killing trades before they can develop. - Favor the selloff regime playbook (hold shorts to RSI30-cover) over choppy-RSI (~40-55) trend_ma/ribbon entries in R4 down-regime days; consider requiring stronger score/RSI separation from 50 before firing cross-based entries.

SPX Close Prediction Β· from 0DTE option flow (GEX/P-C) Β· butterfly body

Predicted close
7406.1
Range (wings)
7400.0 – 7410.0
Actual close
7408.1
Error
2.0 pt

Butterfly: center the body near 7406.1, wings around 7400.0/7410.0. Per-source levels β€” v82: 7410.0/7410.0 Β· v83: 7400.0/7410.0 Β· v51a: 7408.6/7403.6.

DatePredictedRangeActualError (pt)
2026-08-127747.57745.0 – 7753.27748.51.0
2026-08-117720.07720.0 – 7725.07722.52.5
2026-08-107750.07750.0 – 7750.07749.80.2
2026-08-077756.67750.0 – 7760.07758.11.5
2026-08-067707.57705.0 – 7710.07710.12.6
2026-08-057729.97730.0 – 7735.07731.92.0
2026-08-047742.57736.5 – 7745.07736.56.0
2026-08-037597.57500.0 – 7602.07598.81.3
2026-07-317488.37400.0 – 7500.07489.81.5
2026-07-307438.77410.0 – 7440.07438.00.7
2026-07-297309.97312.4 – 7325.07314.44.5
2026-07-287427.57425.0 – 7430.07428.91.4
2026-07-277412.57405.0 – 7415.07413.00.5
2026-07-247410.07400.0 – 7410.07408.51.5
2026-07-237406.17400.0 – 7410.07408.12.0

Market Analysis

InstrumentCloseChange%RangeTrendSupportResistanceNote
SPX7408.30-10.0-0.14%74.1rangebound74107410S&P 500 cash index (Yahoo); GEX walls 7410.0/7410.0
ES7455.75-74.5-0.99%137.8downβ€”β€”S&P 500 future (Yahoo ES=F)
NQ/MNQ28743.75-393.0-1.35%850.5downβ€”β€”Nasdaq-100 future MNQU6
NDX28454.81-91.2-0.32%452.1downβ€”β€”Nasdaq-100 cash index (Yahoo)

Signals vs Orders

Signals taken
82
Suppressed
232
Gate vetoes
0
TimeDirModuleSuppressed byHypo +15mHypo +60mDetail
06:12 PMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$42.00$-36.50+1 oversold_bounce(rsi) rsi6->33 ttm_min-96
06:14 PMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$-9.00$-53.00+1 oversold_bounce(macd) rsi6->44 ttm_min-96
06:49 PMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$-13.50$164.50+1 bullish_div px29040<29039 rsi15<25
06:50 PMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$-56.50$131.00+1 bullish_div px29040<29039 rsi15<25
06:51 PMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$-45.50$152.00+1 bullish_div px29040<29039 rsi15<25
06:52 PMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$-64.00$119.50+1 bullish_div px29040<29039 rsi15<25
08:06 PMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 ribbon_stack_up(age=1)
08:18 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$-48.50$-81.00-1 rsi_fade short rsi=78
08:20 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$-67.00$-70.50-1 rsi_fade short rsi=72
08:21 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$-39.50$-70.50-1 rsi_fade short rsi=75
08:23 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$-29.00$-29.50-1 rsi_fade short rsi=75
08:24 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$-15.00$-18.50-1 rsi_fade short rsi=77
08:25 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$5.50$-2.50-1 rsi_fade short rsi=78
08:26 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$0.00$-8.00-1 rsi_fade short rsi=79
08:27 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$10.50$-16.50-1 rsi_fade short rsi=75
08:28 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$32.00$11.00-1 rsi_fade short rsi=80
08:31 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$-30.50$12.50-1 head_shoulders
08:32 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$-15.00$-12.50-1 head_shoulders
08:33 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$-0.50$-11.50-1 head_shoulders
08:34 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$-22.50$-28.00-1 head_shoulders
08:39 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$-47.00$73.50-1 head_shoulders
08:40 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$-58.50$82.00-1 head_shoulders
08:41 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$-72.50$61.00-1 head_shoulders
08:42 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$-63.00$69.00-1 head_shoulders
08:46 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$-32.00$82.50-1 head_shoulders
08:47 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$-53.00$98.50-1 head_shoulders
08:48 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$-59.50$92.50-1 head_shoulders
08:49 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$-51.00$120.00-1 head_shoulders
08:52 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$24.50$141.00-1 rsi_fade short rsi=78
08:52 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$24.50$141.00-1 rsi_fade short rsi=78
08:55 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$4.00$105.00-1 head_shoulders
08:56 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$11.00$114.00-1 head_shoulders
08:57 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$10.50$145.50-1 head_shoulders
08:58 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$13.00$180.00-1 head_shoulders
09:00 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$-20.50$168.50-1 head_shoulders
09:01 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$-5.50$129.50-1 head_shoulders
09:02 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$6.50$136.00-1 head_shoulders
09:03 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$28.50$184.00-1 head_shoulders
09:09 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$23.50$151.50-1 head_shoulders
09:10 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$49.50$199.50-1 head_shoulders
09:11 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$37.50$209.00-1 head_shoulders
09:12 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$36.00$214.50-1 head_shoulders
10:16 PMβ€”-1?β€”β€”-1 ribbon_stack_dn(age=1)
10:16 PMβ€”-1?β€”β€”-1 ribbon_stack_dn(age=1)
10:45 PMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$31.50$96.00+1 bullish_div px29092<29059 rsi15<36
10:46 PMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$25.00$57.50+1 bullish_div px29092<29059 rsi15<36
10:47 PMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$17.50$70.00+1 bullish_div px29092<29059 rsi15<36
10:48 PMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$-19.50$81.00+1 bullish_div px29092<29059 rsi15<36
12:02 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=29 (eve)
12:04 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=30 (eve)
12:05 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=26 (eve)
12:05 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=27 (eve)
12:06 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=20 (eve)
12:06 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=21 (eve)
12:07 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=16 (eve)
12:07 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=17 (eve)
12:08 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=18 (eve)
12:08 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=19 (eve)
12:31 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 ribbon_stack_up(age=1)
12:44 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$30.00$-12.00-1 head_shoulders
12:45 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$63.00$4.00-1 head_shoulders
12:46 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$95.50$36.00-1 head_shoulders
12:49 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$58.00$70.00-1 head_shoulders
01:23 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$-71.50$52.50-1 ict_short sweep>29118 reclaim29113 rsi47 div
01:23 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$-71.50$52.50-1 ict_short sweep>29118 reclaim29113 rsi47 div
01:27 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$-3.00$111.50-1 rsi_fade short rsi=74
01:27 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$-3.00$111.50-1 rsi_fade short rsi=75
01:28 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$23.00$99.00-1 rsi_fade short rsi=71
01:28 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$23.00$99.00-1 rsi_fade short rsi=72
01:29 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$30.50$112.00-1 rsi_fade short rsi=76
01:29 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$30.50$112.00-1 rsi_fade short rsi=77
01:30 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$65.50$136.50-1 rsi_fade short rsi=79
01:30 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$65.50$136.50-1 rsi_fade short rsi=79
01:32 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$102.50$149.50-1 rsi_fade short rsi=78
01:32 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$102.50$149.50-1 rsi_fade short rsi=79
01:33 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$114.50$164.00-1 rsi_fade short rsi=77
01:33 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$114.50$164.00-1 rsi_fade short rsi=77
01:34 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$134.50$150.50-1 rsi_fade short rsi=74
01:34 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$134.50$150.50-1 rsi_fade short rsi=74
01:35 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$124.50$162.50-1 rsi_fade short rsi=71
01:35 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$124.50$162.50-1 rsi_fade short rsi=73
01:36 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$108.00$134.50-1 head_shoulders
01:37 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$119.50$146.00-1 head_shoulders
01:38 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$117.00$142.50-1 head_shoulders
01:39 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$129.50$122.00-1 head_shoulders
01:56 AMβ€”-1?β€”β€”-1 ribbon_stack_dn(age=1)
02:01 AMβ€”-1?β€”β€”-1 ribbon_stack_dn(age=1)
02:01 AMβ€”-1?β€”β€”-1 ribbon_stack_dn(age=1)
02:19 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$-21.00$146.00-1 ict_short sweep>29102 reclaim29088 rsi42 div
02:19 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$-21.00$146.00-1 ict_short sweep>29102 reclaim29090 rsi44 div
02:21 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$4.50$148.00-1 ict_short sweep>29102 reclaim29101 rsi54 div
02:21 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$4.50$148.00-1 ict_short sweep>29102 reclaim29102 rsi54 div
02:22 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$17.50$166.00-1 ict_short sweep>29102 reclaim29102 rsi55 div
04:56 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 ribbon_stack_up(age=1)
05:03 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$33.50$90.50-1 head_shoulders
05:03 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$33.50$90.50-1 rsi_fade short rsi=75
05:04 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$70.00$129.50-1 head_shoulders
05:04 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$70.00$129.50-1 rsi_fade short rsi=82
05:05 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$66.50$134.50-1 head_shoulders
05:05 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$66.50$134.50-1 rsi_fade short rsi=82
05:06 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$71.50$129.50-1 head_shoulders
05:06 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$71.50$129.50-1 rsi_fade short rsi=79
05:07 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$65.00$112.00-1 bearish_div px29110>29134 rsi84>82
05:07 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$65.00$112.00-1 rsi_fade short rsi=76
05:08 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$38.50$125.00-1 bearish_div px29110>29134 rsi84>82
05:09 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$36.50$133.50-1 bearish_div px29110>29134 rsi84>82
05:10 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$26.00$124.00-1 bearish_div px29110>29134 rsi84>82
05:10 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.65$-26.00$-124.00+1 ha_long regime-hold(run=13) rsi5=67 sl=23.4
05:10 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.65$-26.00$-124.00+1 ha_long regime-hold(run=13) rsi5=67 sl=23.4
05:11 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.65$-31.00$-136.50+1 ha_long regime-hold(run=13) rsi5=67 sl=23.5
05:15 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=27 (eve)
05:17 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$-24.00$-92.00+1 ha_long pullback-flip rsi5=56 sl=19.1
05:17 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$-24.00$-92.00+1 ha_long pullback-flip rsi5=56 sl=19.1
05:17 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$-24.00$-92.00+1 ha_long pullback-flip rsi5=56 sl=19.1
05:22 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$25.50$69.00-1 head_shoulders
05:23 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$25.00$82.50-1 head_shoulders
05:24 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$34.00$88.50-1 head_shoulders
05:25 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$49.50$77.50-1 head_shoulders
05:28 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$39.50$89.00-1 head_shoulders
05:29 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$35.50$81.00-1 head_shoulders
05:30 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$3.00$19.00-1 head_shoulders
05:31 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$17.00$1.00-1 head_shoulders
06:21 AMβ€”-1?β€”β€”-1 ribbon_stack_dn(age=1)
06:29 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$-102.00$110.50-1 ict_short sweep>29054 reclaim29051 rsi49 div
06:31 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$-39.50$164.00-1 rsi_fade short rsi=77
06:32 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$-26.00$205.00-1 rsi_fade short rsi=80
06:33 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$-27.50$231.00-1 rsi_fade short rsi=82
06:34 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$-15.50$237.00-1 rsi_fade short rsi=85
06:35 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$-16.00$317.50-1 rsi_fade short rsi=75
06:36 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$4.00$341.50-1 rsi_fade short rsi=80
06:37 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$10.00$354.50-1 rsi_fade short rsi=81
06:38 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$17.00$369.50-1 rsi_fade short rsi=79
06:39 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$25.00$361.50-1 rsi_fade short rsi=81
06:40 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$22.00$374.50-1 rsi_fade short rsi=78
06:42 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$37.00$360.50-1 rsi_fade short rsi=82
06:43 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$28.50$378.50-1 rsi_fade short rsi=75
06:44 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$-6.00$349.50-1 rsi_cross_down_70
06:45 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$27.50$347.50-1 head_shoulders
06:46 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$47.50$358.50-1 head_shoulders
06:47 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$70.50$340.50-1 head_shoulders
06:48 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$63.00$329.50-1 head_shoulders
06:49 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$92.00$329.00-1 head_shoulders
06:50 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$125.00$331.50-1 head_shoulders
06:52 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$119.50$306.50-1 head_shoulders
06:53 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$102.00$295.00-1 head_shoulders
06:54 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$112.50$290.50-1 head_shoulders
06:55 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$114.00$295.00-1 head_shoulders
07:00 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$80.50$300.00-1 head_shoulders
07:26 AMβ€”-1?β€”β€”-1 ribbon_stack_dn(age=1)
07:43 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$50.50$-313.00+1 oversold_bounce(rsi) rsi10->34 ttm_min-81
07:43 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$50.50$-313.00+1 rsi_cross_up_30
07:45 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$55.50$-271.00+1 oversold_bounce(rsi) rsi10->32 ttm_min-81
07:46 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$49.50$-264.00+1 oversold_bounce(macd) rsi10->34 ttm_min-76
07:48 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$55.00$-333.00+1 oversold_bounce(rsi) rsi10->40 ttm_min-74
07:57 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 llm_trigger 5m trend neutral, fresh low didn't undercut, 1m/
07:58 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 llm_trigger 5m trend neutral, fresh low didn't undercut, 1m/
07:59 AMlong+1qqq_er_blackout:TMUS TMUS earnings (pre-market$-86.50$-342.50+1 llm_trigger range-low reclaim holding above prior low, RSI55
08:00 AMshort-1qqq_er_blackout:TMUS TMUS earnings (pre-market$70.00$339.50-1 rsi_fade short rsi=71
08:01 AMshort-1qqq_er_blackout:TMUS TMUS earnings (pre-market$94.50$298.50-1 rsi_cross_down_70
08:01 AMlong+1qqq_er_blackout:TMUS TMUS earnings (pre-market$-94.50$-298.50+1 llm_trigger range-low reclaim holding above prior low, RSI55
08:02 AMlong+1qqq_er_blackout:TMUS TMUS earnings (pre-market$-80.50$-345.50+1 llm_trigger range-low reclaim holding above prior low, RSI55
08:03 AMshort-1qqq_er_blackout:TMUS TMUS earnings (pre-market$103.50$346.50-1 llm_trigger 15m/1m downtrend intact, rally into EMA13 failed
08:04 AMshort-1qqq_er_blackout:TMUS TMUS earnings (pre-market$127.50$370.00-1 llm_trigger 15m/1m downtrend intact, rally into EMA13 failed
08:05 AMshort-1qqq_er_blackout:TMUS TMUS earnings (pre-market$132.00$390.00-1 llm_trigger 15m/1m downtrend intact, rally into EMA13 failed
08:06 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=29 (eve)
08:07 AMshort-1qqq_er_blackout:TMUS TMUS earnings (pre-market$82.00$342.00-1 llm_trigger downtrend 15m/5m intact, rip failed at EMAs, res
08:08 AMshort-1qqq_er_blackout:TMUS TMUS earnings (pre-market$115.00$381.50-1 llm_trigger downtrend 15m/5m intact, rip failed at EMAs, res
08:09 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=27 (eve)
08:14 AMshort-1qqq_er_blackout:TMUS TMUS earnings (pre-market$145.50$401.50-1 llm_trigger downtrend intact, sell the rip back toward sessi
08:15 AMshort-1qqq_er_blackout:TMUS TMUS earnings (pre-market$113.50$390.50-1 llm_trigger downtrend intact, sell the rip back toward sessi
08:16 AMshort-1qqq_er_blackout:TMUS TMUS earnings (pre-market$147.50$413.50-1 llm_trigger downtrend intact, sell the rip back toward sessi
08:17 AMshort-1qqq_er_blackout:TMUS TMUS earnings (pre-market$113.50$374.50-1 llm_trigger downtrend intact, sell the rip back toward sessi
08:20 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$-117.00$-364.50+1 bullish_div px28916<28880 rsi27<35
08:21 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$-159.00$-337.50+1 bullish_div px28916<28880 rsi27<35
08:22 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$-193.00$-370.00+1 bullish_div px28916<28880 rsi27<35
08:23 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$-180.00$-354.00+1 bullish_div px28916<28880 rsi27<35
08:28 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$-194.00$-304.00+1 rsi_cross_up_30
08:38 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=11 (eve)
08:39 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=17 (eve)
08:40 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=15 (eve)
08:41 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=11 (eve)
08:42 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$-15.50$130.50+1 oversold_bounce(rsi) rsi11->34 ttm_min-68
08:42 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$-15.50$130.50+1 rsi_cross_up_30
08:43 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=25 (eve)
08:44 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=27 (eve)
08:45 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$11.50$116.50+1 oversold_bounce(rsi) rsi11->36 ttm_min-68
08:47 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$-32.00$64.00+1 oversold_bounce(macd) rsi11->42 ttm_min-68
08:48 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=29 (eve)
08:49 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=26 (eve)
08:50 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$-61.50$-15.50+1 oversold_bounce(rsi) rsi12->46 ttm_min-68
09:11 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$-33.50$11.50+1 oversold_bounce(rsi) rsi25->31 ttm_min-50
09:13 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$-17.00$30.50+1 oversold_bounce(rsi) rsi25->37 ttm_min-52
09:53 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$-55.50$-308.50+1 oversold_bounce(rsi) rsi30->34 ttm_min-62
09:55 AMlong+1cooldown 9s<30s$-182.50$-474.00+1 llm_trigger Sharp reversal off 28656 low; dip into EMA zone
10:53 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$-130.50$-152.00+1 oversold_bounce(rsi) rsi26->36 ttm_min-77
10:57 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$-220.50$-67.50+1 oversold_bounce(rsi) rsi26->43 ttm_min-77
11:00 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$-177.00$-3.50+1 oversold_bounce(macd) rsi26->42 ttm_min-77
11:08 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$-99.00$149.50+1 rsi_cross_up_30
11:09 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$-94.50$147.50+1 oversold_bounce(rsi) rsi20->33 ttm_min-63
11:11 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$-109.50$204.50+1 rsi_cross_up_30
11:14 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$-76.00$254.00+1 rsi_cross_up_30
11:16 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$-91.50$227.50+1 oversold_bounce(rsi) rsi19->37 ttm_min-73
11:16 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$-91.50$227.50+1 rsi_cross_up_30
11:18 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$-91.50$217.50+1 oversold_bounce(macd) rsi19->48 ttm_min-73
11:26 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$101.50$380.00+1 bullish_div px28483<28456 rsi23<33
11:27 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$71.50$445.00+1 bullish_div px28483<28456 rsi23<33
11:28 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$94.50$480.50+1 bullish_div px28483<28456 rsi23<33
11:29 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$87.00$512.50+1 bullish_div px28483<28456 rsi23<33
11:30 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$84.00$462.00+1 oversold_bounce(rsi) rsi25->36 ttm_min-58
11:33 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$42.50$434.00+1 oversold_bounce(macd) rsi25->49 ttm_min-58
11:35 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$83.00$433.00+1 bullish_div px28456<28432 rsi33<41
11:36 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$33.00$401.00+1 bullish_div px28456<28432 rsi33<41
11:37 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$43.50$384.00+1 bullish_div px28456<28432 rsi33<41
11:38 AMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$48.00$435.50+1 bullish_div px28456<28432 rsi33<41
11:51 AMlong+1cooldown 11s<30s$91.00$180.00+1 llm_trigger 1m HA green x2 reclaiming EMA13 after confirmed
12:31 PMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 ribbon_stack_up(age=1)
12:44 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$131.00$237.50-1 head_shoulders
12:45 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$64.00$133.50-1 head_shoulders
12:47 PMlong+1cooldown 26s<30s$-0.50$-54.50+1 golden_cross sma50x200 | llm-ok
01:22 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$87.00$161.50-1 ict_short sweep>28655 reclaim28640 rsi51 div
01:23 PMlong+1cooldown 5s<30s$-93.00$-131.00+1 llm_trigger HA green x2, reclaimed EMA13/50 after pullback f
01:24 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$140.50$161.00-1 head_shoulders
01:25 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$172.00$183.00-1 head_shoulders
01:26 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$165.50$208.00-1 head_shoulders
01:27 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$156.50$209.00-1 head_shoulders
01:30 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$62.00$138.50-1 bearish_div px28674>28676 rsi66>63
01:31 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$52.00$120.00-1 bearish_div px28674>28676 rsi66>63
01:31 PMlong+1reconcile quarantine 112s$-52.00$-120.00+1 ha_long regime-hold(run=19) rsi5=53 sl=26.9
01:41 PMβ€”-1?β€”β€”-1 ribbon_stack_dn(age=1)
02:56 PMlong+1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1$-59.50$90.50+1 rsi_cross_up_30
03:02 PMshort-1cooldown 27s<30s$21.50$-305.50-1 short5m 5m-dn rsi5=46 r5max=54 sl=35.5
03:09 PMβ€”-1?β€”β€”-1 llm_trigger 5m/15m down-aligned, bounce to EMA13/50 failed,

Missed Opportunities & Trend Check

WindowaipredictionOur resultMoveMissed $ReasonNote
sessionbullishloss-393.0β€”trend_day_not_capturedaiprediction trend=bullish, actual MNQ move=-393.0pt (down); our session net=$-94.0 (loss)

Trades (53)

EntryStratDirInOutPtsP/LExitGradeLesson
06:59 PMselloffshort29072.2529040.0032.3$64.50selloff_rsi30_covergood_exitKeep taking the RSI30-cover exit on selloff shorts rather than holding for the full 500pt TP β€” it's capturing quick, high-quality reversals.
07:14 PMsellofflong29062.2529066.254.0$8.00overseer_covergood_exitWhen score/RSI read 0.0 (thin confirmation), taking the quick scratch-win via overseer cover is correct β€” don't hold for the full 500pt TP on weak-confluence entries.
08:29 PMtrend_malong29226.7529226.750.0$0.00overseer_covergood_exitInvestigate why overseer_cover fires at 0 bars held so quickly after entry to confirm it's not clipping valid golden_cross setups prematurely.
08:30 PMtrend_malong29220.7529232.5011.8$23.50be_lock_tick peaked+22.0pt gaveback_to+11.8ptgood_exitConsider trailing be_lock less aggressively on strong trend-confirmed entries to capture more of the peak move.
12:44 AMtrend_malong29141.5029149.508.0$16.00be_lock_tick peaked+16.0pt gaveback_to+8.0ptgood_exitConsider tightening the be-lock giveback tolerance so peak profit isn't cut by 50% on quick 2-bar spikes.
12:46 AMtrend_malong29150.5029127.50-23.0$-46.00sma50_touchmarginalRequire score/RSI meaningfully above 50 (not just a bare cross) before sizing into golden_cross entries to filter out low-conviction whipsaws.
01:30 AMribbonlong29179.0029111.25-67.8$-135.50tick_slunluckyZero-bar tick-SL stopouts on a good signal suggest entry price needs a small confirmation buffer (e.g. wait 1 bar close) rather than firing on the tick that triggers the signal.
01:43 AMictlong29140.2529111.25-29.0$-58.00tick_slunluckyConsider a minimum structural stop (below the sweep low) instead of a flat 25-tick SL so valid reclaim setups aren't stopped out by immediate noise.
05:01 AMtrend_malong29096.5029096.500.0$0.00overseer_covergood_exitIf overseer_cover keeps zeroing out trend_ma entries at 0 bars held, check what condition is triggering the cover so healthy setups aren't cut before they can work.
05:02 AMtrend_malong29107.0029111.254.3$8.50be_lock_tick peaked+21.0pt gaveback_to+4.2ptgood_exitConsider tightening RSI entry filter (e.g. avoid longs above ~70) since this entry immediately faded despite the trend signal.
05:03 AMtrend_malong29124.0029124.000.0$0.00overseer_coverunluckyInvestigate why overseer_cover triggered at 0 bars held on a fresh signal-confirmed entry β€” a same-bar cover suggests a risk-check or reconnect artifact worth logging separately from normal exits.
05:05 AMtrend_malong29122.5029122.500.0$0.00overseer_covergood_exitDon't take golden-cross longs when RSI is already near 80 β€” require a pullback or reset before entering.
05:13 AMtrend_malong29093.0029092.50-0.5$-1.00be_lock_tick peaked+18.2pt gaveback_to-0.5ptunluckyFor trend_ma golden-cross entries, consider trailing the be_lock further behind peak (or delaying activation) so an 18pt favorable excursion isn't given back to flat.
05:14 AMtrend_malong29080.2529080.500.3$0.50be_lock_tick peaked+31.0pt gaveback_to+0.2ptgood_exitConsider a tighter or staged trail (lock more profit sooner) once a trade reaches ~3x its typical MNQ move, rather than letting be_lock give back 30+ points.
05:15 AMha_longlong29082.5029082.500.0$0.00be_lock_tick peaked+28.8pt gaveback_to+0.0ptgood_exitConsider tightening the be_lock trail (or taking partials) once a trade reaches ~2x its risk in favor, so a +28.8pt swing doesn't give back to +0.
05:16 AMha_longlong29092.2529091.50-0.8$-1.50be_lock_tick peaked+19.0pt gaveback_to-0.8ptunluckyConsider trailing the be_lock stop tighter once price is up 15+pt instead of letting it ride back to breakeven-minus.
05:28 AMllmlong29092.7529091.25-1.5$-3.00be_lock_tick peaked+18.5pt gaveback_to-1.5ptunluckyAn 18.5pt favorable excursion followed by a full giveback to breakeven signals the be_lock trail is too tight relative to this pair's volatility β€” widen the lock buffer or scale out partial size at +10-15pt instead of trailing to flat.
06:45 AMllmlong29097.2529096.75-0.5$-1.00sma50_touchunluckyConsider whether the sma50_touch exit is firing too early relative to ATR (9.4pts) on trades with only ~0.5pt of adverse movement, potentially cutting winners before they develop.
09:51 AMllmshort28735.2528728.506.8$13.50be_lock_tick peaked+16.2pt gaveback_to+6.8ptgood_exitTrail lock is protecting profit as designed, but 16.2pt peak shrinking to 6.8pt is a lot of giveback β€” consider tightening the lock distance on quick single-bar spikes.
09:52 AMllmshort28745.2528771.50-26.3$-52.50tick_slmistakeRequire stronger confluence (e.g. RSI further from midline, wider confirmation) before firing on a 'HA red x5' signal that's already extended, to avoid late-entry whipsaws.
09:55 AMllmlong28806.5028777.00-29.5$-59.00tick_slunluckyFor llm_trigger reversal entries, size the stop closer to ~1x ATR instead of a fixed 25pt to avoid getting shaken out by normal noise.
09:57 AMselloffshort28731.5028649.0082.5$165.00selloff_rsi30_covergood_entryKeep holding shorts through the selloff until the RSI30 cover trigger instead of taking early partial profits.
10:34 AMsellofflong28670.2528642.00-28.3$-56.50selloff_rebound_exit:weak_daily_lowunluckyWhen exiting on 'weak_daily_low' ahead of the hard stop, confirm the low is actually being violated with momentum, not just proximity, or the exit just pre-empts a valid stop-loss with a worse fill.
10:49 AMllmshort28628.0028619.508.5$17.00be_lock_tick peaked+17.5pt gaveback_to+8.5ptgood_exitConsider trailing be_lock tighter once a trade shows 2x its typical giveback, to capture more of peak favorable excursion on 1-bar-hold scalps.
10:50 AMllmshort28614.5028593.2521.3$42.50rsi_extreme_exit(rsi=25)good_exitWhen RSI-extreme exits fire this fast, consider tightening the initial TP/SL distance so more trades reach target instead of relying on the extreme-exit override.
10:52 AMllmshort28614.2528602.7511.5$23.00be_lock_tick peaked+20.0pt gaveback_to+11.5ptgood_exitKeep the be_lock giveback logic as-is here β€” it converted a 20pt peak into a protected +11.5pt exit on a 1-bar hold, exactly its job.
11:00 AMllmshort28587.0028575.5011.5$23.00be_lock_tick peaked+19.8pt gaveback_to+11.5ptgood_exitKeep the be_lock tightening after a strong favorable spike; a 1-bar giveback from +19.8 to +11.5 is exactly the scenario it's designed to catch.
11:01 AMllmshort28579.7528569.0010.8$21.50be_lock_tick peaked+21.2pt gaveback_to+10.8ptgood_exitConsider tightening the be_lock giveback tolerance so more of the peak favorable move is preserved on quick 3-bar reversals.
11:04 AMllmshort28568.5028554.5014.0$28.00rsi_extreme_exit(rsi=26)good_exitKeep taking EMA13-reject shorts in confirmed downtrends and let the RSI-extreme exit lock in fast, small wins rather than holding for the full TP.
11:06 AMllmshort28534.0028542.25-8.3$-16.50rsi_extreme_exit(rsi=28)good_exitAvoid stacking short entries when RSI is already at/near extreme-oversold; either skip the entry or tighten expectations since a mean-revert bounce is the higher-probability next move.
11:08 AMllmshort28549.0028529.5019.5$39.00rsi_extreme_exit(rsi=26)good_exitKeep using rsi_extreme_exit to bank quick countertrend snaps instead of holding for the full 150pt TP on 1-bar scalps.
11:39 AMllmlong28526.2528542.7516.5$33.00be_lock_tick peaked+24.8pt gaveback_to+16.5ptgood_exitFine as-is β€” a tighter be_lock ratchet after such a fast spike could capture more of the peak, but don't over-tighten and risk premature stop-outs on noise.
11:40 AMllmlong28531.5028538.256.8$13.50trend_ride_end:htf_flipgood_exitTrend-ride-end-on-htf_flip is doing its job here β€” keep letting it cut winners short on a flip rather than holding for the full TP.
11:42 AMllmlong28510.5028484.75-25.8$-51.50tick_slunluckyConsider whether a 25pt SL is too tight relative to this setup's typical development time (3 bars to stop-out suggests noise, not thesis failure).
11:45 AMllmshort28507.5028498.758.8$17.50be_lock_tick peaked+19.5pt gaveback_to+8.8ptgood_exitTighten be_lock giveback tolerance on 1-bar-fast trades so peak +19.5pt doesn't erode to +8.8pt before locking out.
11:46 AMllmshort28497.2528522.75-25.5$-51.00tick_slgood_entryKeep taking this EM-rejection-with-trend setup; a quick 25pt stop-out on a sound signal is normal variance, not a signal flaw.
11:51 AMllmlong28520.0028520.000.0$0.00overseer_coverunluckyCheck whether the overseer's immediate-cover trigger is firing on noise right after entry, since a valid signal is getting killed before it can develop.
11:52 AMllmlong28536.7528538.251.5$3.00trend_ride_end:htf_flipgood_exitLetting htf_flip end the ride immediately on a 1-bar move is fine β€” the entry logic doesn't need a bigger stop, it needs a bigger sample before judging edge quality.
12:13 PMllmlong28623.2528623.250.0$0.00overseer_covergood_exitA 0-bar overseer cover on a clean setup suggests the cover trigger may be too twitchy relative to entry criteria; worth checking what fired it.
12:14 PMllmlong28630.5028641.5011.0$22.00trend_ride_end:htf_flipgood_exitKeep honoring the htf_flip trend-ride exit on quick reversals rather than holding for the full TP target.
12:44 PMtrend_malong28684.7528657.75-27.0$-54.00tick_slmistakeRequire stronger momentum confirmation (e.g. RSI/score threshold) before trusting a golden-cross signal alone, especially with a tight 25pt stop.
01:20 PMllmlong28662.2528637.00-25.3$-50.50tick_slunluckyFor dip-reclaim entries, widen the stop or wait for one bar of confirmation before initial risk, since a 25pt SL is tight relative to a 23pt ATR.
01:23 PMllmlong28659.7528671.006.6$26.50be_lock_tick peaked+16.0pt gaveback_to+6.6ptgood_exitConsider trailing tighter or scaling out at +10-12pt on quick 3-bar moves to capture more of the initial pop before gaveback.
01:40 PMribbonshort28578.2528586.25-8.0$-16.00rsi_extreme_exit(rsi=29)unluckyA 1-bar rsi_extreme_exit after a fresh signal flip is often just noise β€” consider requiring 2+ bars of confirmation before honoring that exit trigger.
01:47 PMllmlong28620.7528621.000.3$0.50trend_ride_end:htf_flipunluckyConsider a minimum hold/noise buffer before honoring htf_flip exits on fresh entries to avoid 1-bar whipsaw scratches.
01:49 PMllmlong28621.7528622.000.3$0.50trend_ride_end:htf_flipgood_exitFast HTF-flip exits after a 1-bar hold are doing their job β€” don't tighten the reclaim-entry criteria based on this trade alone.
02:15 PMtrend_mashort28570.7528559.0011.8$23.50be_lock_tick peaked+23.8pt gaveback_to+11.8ptgood_exitWait for RSI to confirm directional momentum (not near 50) before sizing conviction on a trend_ma signal.
02:18 PMtrend_mashort28552.2528569.75-17.5$-35.00ha10s_loss_cutmarginalRequire a stronger conviction score (e.g. >55-60) before firing on lagging sma50x200 death-cross signals to avoid weak, quickly-reversed entries.
02:22 PMtrend_mashort28559.0028579.25-20.3$-40.50llm_rescue_exit:5m neutral (no protection), HA green x3 mistakeRequire a minimum score/RSI separation from the neutral zone (e.g. <40 or >60) before trend_ma acts on a death/golden-cross signal.
02:38 PMllmshort28559.5028574.00-14.5$-29.00sma50_touchgood_exitConsider widening SL relative to ATR on sold-the-rip shorts so a single ATR-sized wick doesn't stop out a correctly-timed entry.
02:41 PMllmshort28557.0028572.75-15.8$-31.50ha10s_loss_cutgood_entryNo change needed β€” this is an acceptable, well-managed loss on a valid signal, not a process error.
03:41 PMllmshort28532.2528511.2521.0$42.00rsi_extreme_exit(rsi=20)good_exitKeep the rsi_extreme_exit as a quick-scalp override on strong-confluence entries since it locks in gains before mean-reversion erases them.
03:43 PMllmshort28514.7528504.7510.0$20.00rsi_extreme_exit(rsi=20)good_entryKeep taking these fast RSI-extreme scalps on confirmed downtrend rejections β€” one bar and out is fine when it hits.

Recent Sessions

DateTradesWin%PFNet P/L
2026-08-123435.3%0.29$-1150.00
2026-08-112821.4%0.4$-741.50
2026-08-101816.7%0.03$-1030.00
2026-08-071526.7%0.05$-512.00
2026-08-062532%1.07$52.00
2026-08-051926.3%0.32$-440.50
2026-08-041631.2%5.55$1641.00
2026-08-032330.4%0.67$-244.00
2026-07-312536%0.67$-303.00
2026-07-306254.8%1.1$102.50
2026-07-294949%0.14$-3827.00
2026-07-286851.5%39.88$41254.50
2026-07-274959.2%1.25$152.00
2026-07-245448.1%0.68$-305.50
2026-07-235349.1%0.88$-94.00
2026-07-223151.6%0.65$-157.50
2026-07-214938.8%0.31$-1243.50
2026-07-201546.7%0.3$-502.50
2026-07-171136.4%0.42$-202.00
2026-07-167243.1%0.5$-696.50
2026-07-154665.2%1.44$361.50
2026-07-1421249.5%0.84$-445.00
2026-07-135764.9%1.26$133.50
2026-07-033935.9%0.62$-188.00
2026-07-027736.4%0.91$-67.00
2026-07-014537.8%0.73$-134.00
2026-06-305339.6%0.84$-120.00
2026-06-293951.3%1.35$589.00
2026-06-262254.5%0.92$-139.00
2026-06-255442.6%1.08$110.00