Session 2026-07-16 · signal_gen MNQ · updated daily after 17:00 ET
down (-436pt over the session), dominant regime R4; strategy mix {'ict': 37, 'selloff': 35}
Session lost $696.5 over 72 trades (43% win rate) in a strongly down market (-436pt, R4 regime); both strategies traded were unprofitable, with ict worse (-$465/37 trades) than selloff (-$231.5/35 trades). The tick_sl exit was the single biggest drag (-$571 across just 10 trades, avg -$57), several times firing on stops that were tight relative to ATR (e.g. 30pt SL vs 44pt ATR). Meanwhile the be_lock_tick trail repeatedly gave back 40-60% of peak favorable excursion before locking out winners, and multiple entries were taken against the 5m trend or against MACD momentum, only to get bailed out at a loss by llm_rescue_exit and trend_flip logic.
Butterfly: center the body near 7533.2, wings around 7530.0/7535.0. Per-source levels — v82: 7530.0/7535.0 · v83: 7535.0/7535.0 · v51a: 7535.7/7530.7.
| Date | Predicted | Range | Actual | Error (pt) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | 7747.5 | 7745.0 – 7753.2 | 7748.5 | 1.0 |
| 2026-08-11 | 7720.0 | 7720.0 – 7725.0 | 7722.5 | 2.5 |
| 2026-08-10 | 7750.0 | 7750.0 – 7750.0 | 7749.8 | 0.2 |
| 2026-08-07 | 7756.6 | 7750.0 – 7760.0 | 7758.1 | 1.5 |
| 2026-08-06 | 7707.5 | 7705.0 – 7710.0 | 7710.1 | 2.6 |
| 2026-08-05 | 7729.9 | 7730.0 – 7735.0 | 7731.9 | 2.0 |
| 2026-08-04 | 7742.5 | 7736.5 – 7745.0 | 7736.5 | 6.0 |
| 2026-08-03 | 7597.5 | 7500.0 – 7602.0 | 7598.8 | 1.3 |
| 2026-07-31 | 7488.3 | 7400.0 – 7500.0 | 7489.8 | 1.5 |
| 2026-07-30 | 7438.7 | 7410.0 – 7440.0 | 7438.0 | 0.7 |
| 2026-07-29 | 7309.9 | 7312.4 – 7325.0 | 7314.4 | 4.5 |
| 2026-07-28 | 7427.5 | 7425.0 – 7430.0 | 7428.9 | 1.4 |
| 2026-07-27 | 7412.5 | 7405.0 – 7415.0 | 7413.0 | 0.5 |
| 2026-07-24 | 7410.0 | 7400.0 – 7410.0 | 7408.5 | 1.5 |
| 2026-07-23 | 7406.1 | 7400.0 – 7410.0 | 7408.1 | 2.0 |
| Instrument | Close | Change | % | Range | Trend | Support | Resistance | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 7533.77 | -25.0 | -0.33% | 66.7 | down | 7530 | 7535 | S&P 500 cash index (Yahoo); GEX walls 7530.0/7535.0 |
| ES | 7569.25 | -45.8 | -0.60% | 83.8 | down | — | — | S&P 500 future (Yahoo ES=F) |
| NQ/MNQ | 29175.50 | -524.3 | -1.76% | 717.5 | down | — | — | Nasdaq-100 future MNQU6 |
| NDX | 29025.77 | -292.5 | -1.00% | 451.8 | down | — | — | Nasdaq-100 cash index (Yahoo) |
| Time | Dir | Module | Suppressed by | Hypo +15m | Hypo +60m | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:05 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $21.00 | $45.50 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=76 |
| 06:06 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $41.50 | $56.00 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=81 |
| 06:07 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $58.00 | $66.00 | -1 rsi_fade short rsi=85 |
| 06:08 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $45.00 | $48.50 | -1 rsi_cross_down_70 |
| 06:51 PM | long | +1 | cooldown 1s<5s | $52.50 | $9.50 | +1 rsi_cross_up_30 |
| 06:56 PM | — | -1 | ? | — | — | -1 ribbon_stack_dn(age=1) |
| 07:07 PM | — | +1 | ? | — | — | +1 ribbon_stack_up(age=1) |
| 08:07 PM | — | +1 | ? | — | — | +1 ribbon_stack_up(age=1) |
| 08:16 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $148.00 | $229.00 | -1 rsi_cross_down_70 |
| 08:26 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-105.00 | $-165.50 | +1 rsi_cross_up_30 |
| 08:29 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-107.00 | $-139.50 | +1 rsi_cross_up_30 |
| 08:34 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-44.50 | $-121.00 | +1 rsi_cross_up_30 |
| 08:41 PM | — | +1 | ? | — | — | +1 rsi_fade long rsi=30 (eve) |
| 08:42 PM | — | +1 | ? | — | — | +1 rsi_fade long rsi=30 (eve) |
| 08:43 PM | — | +1 | ? | — | — | +1 rsi_fade long rsi=23 (eve) |
| 08:44 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $39.50 | $-42.00 | +1 rsi_cross_up_30 |
| 08:49 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $39.50 | $67.00 | +1 dbl_bottom 29653/29622 rsi26->25 |
| 08:50 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $7.00 | $56.50 | +1 dbl_bottom 29653/29622 rsi26->25 |
| 09:00 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-71.00 | $-30.50 | +1 dbl_bottom 29622/29637 rsi25->53 |
| 10:15 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $108.00 | $214.50 | +1 dbl_bottom 29620/29620 rsi31->41 |
| 10:16 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $89.00 | $199.00 | +1 dbl_bottom 29620/29620 rsi31->41 |
| 10:32 PM | — | +1 | ? | — | — | +1 ribbon_stack_up(age=1) |
| 10:47 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $84.00 | $55.50 | +1 bull[R] >29666/vwap29670 rsi51 macd-3.1 ttm-3 |
| 10:49 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $70.50 | $26.00 | +1 bull[RT] >29668/vwap29670 rsi59 macd-2.1 ttm2 |
| 10:53 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-76.00 | $-29.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 10:54 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-58.00 | $-12.50 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 10:55 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-46.00 | $-12.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 10:56 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-46.00 | $-9.50 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 11:01 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-36.00 | $-40.50 | -1 rsi_cross_down_70 |
| 11:03 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $3.00 | $-21.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 11:04 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $13.00 | $-19.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 11:04 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $13.00 | $-19.00 | -1 rsi_cross_down_70 |
| 11:05 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $20.00 | $-23.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 11:06 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $44.50 | $0.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 11:11 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $55.00 | $7.00 | -1 rsi_cross_down_70 |
| 11:13 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $51.00 | $0.00 | -1 rsi_cross_down_70 |
| 11:15 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $27.50 | $5.00 | -1 bearish_div px29736>29752 rsi73>71 |
| 11:16 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $13.50 | $24.50 | -1 bearish_div px29736>29752 rsi73>71 |
| 11:17 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $15.00 | $33.50 | -1 bearish_div px29736>29752 rsi73>71 |
| 11:18 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-29.00 | $1.50 | -1 bearish_div px29736>29752 rsi73>71 |
| 11:35 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $35.00 | $59.50 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 11:36 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $43.50 | $68.50 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 11:38 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $14.50 | $48.50 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 11:59 PM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-31.00 | $55.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 12:00 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-5.00 | $57.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 12:01 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $22.50 | $53.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 12:04 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $31.50 | $39.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 12:05 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $19.50 | $44.50 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 12:06 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $55.50 | $37.50 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 12:07 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $64.50 | $59.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 12:11 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $34.00 | $9.50 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 12:12 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $44.00 | $11.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 12:13 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $64.00 | $6.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 12:14 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $58.50 | $-5.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 12:16 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $53.00 | $0.50 | -1 rsi_cross_down_70 |
| 01:02 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-50.50 | $20.50 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 01:08 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-107.50 | $-6.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 01:09 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-98.00 | $-2.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 01:11 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-110.00 | $18.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 01:17 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $2.00 | $23.50 | -1 rsi_cross_down_70 |
| 01:25 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $160.00 | $138.00 | -1 rsi_cross_down_70 |
| 01:28 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $110.50 | $157.00 | -1 rsi_cross_down_70 |
| 01:30 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $145.50 | $161.50 | -1 bearish_div px29771>29776 rsi82>72 |
| 01:31 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $185.50 | $201.50 | -1 bearish_div px29771>29776 rsi82>72 |
| 01:32 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $127.00 | $141.50 | -1 bearish_div px29771>29776 rsi82>72 |
| 01:32 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $127.00 | $141.50 | -1 dbl_top 29771/29776 rsi82->72 |
| 01:32 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $127.00 | $141.50 | -1 rsi_cross_down_70 |
| 01:33 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $105.50 | $139.50 | -1 bearish_div px29771>29776 rsi82>72 |
| 01:33 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $105.50 | $139.50 | -1 dbl_top 29771/29776 rsi82->72 |
| 01:47 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-35.50 | $40.50 | -1 bear[R] <29728/vwap29693 rsi38 macd-1.4 ttm-28 |
| 01:51 AM | — | -1 | ? | — | — | -1 ribbon_stack_dn(age=1) |
| 01:59 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-76.50 | $18.00 | -1 bear[RT] <29722/vwap29693 rsi43 macd1.9 ttm-4 |
| 02:05 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $53.50 | $-116.00 | +1 dbl_bottom 29678/29684 rsi32->74 |
| 02:09 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-43.50 | $-135.50 | +1 rsi_cross_up_30 |
| 02:29 AM | — | +1 | ? | — | — | +1 rsi_fade long rsi=27 (eve) |
| 02:30 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-50.00 | $-132.00 | +1 rsi_cross_up_30 |
| 02:32 AM | — | +1 | ? | — | — | +1 rsi_fade long rsi=25 (eve) |
| 02:33 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-35.50 | $-156.00 | +1 rsi_cross_up_30 |
| 02:34 AM | — | +1 | ? | — | — | +1 rsi_fade long rsi=24 (eve) |
| 02:35 AM | — | +1 | ? | — | — | +1 rsi_fade long rsi=19 (eve) |
| 02:36 AM | — | +1 | ? | — | — | +1 rsi_fade long rsi=16 (eve) |
| 02:37 AM | — | +1 | ? | — | — | +1 rsi_fade long rsi=12 (eve) |
| 02:38 AM | — | +1 | ? | — | — | +1 rsi_fade long rsi=28 (eve) |
| 02:39 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $10.00 | $-169.00 | +1 oversold_bounce(rsi) rsi12->41 ttm_min-51 |
| 02:39 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $10.00 | $-169.00 | +1 rsi_cross_up_30 |
| 02:50 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-63.50 | $-217.50 | +1 dbl_bottom 29642/29658 rsi28->40 |
| 02:51 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-66.00 | $-229.00 | +1 dbl_bottom 29642/29658 rsi28->40 |
| 03:01 AM | — | +1 | ? | — | — | +1 rsi_fade long rsi=24 (eve) |
| 03:02 AM | — | +1 | ? | — | — | +1 rsi_fade long rsi=23 (eve) |
| 03:03 AM | — | +1 | ? | — | — | +1 rsi_fade long rsi=22 (eve) |
| 03:04 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-53.00 | $-221.00 | +1 rsi_cross_up_30 |
| 03:13 AM | — | +1 | ? | — | — | +1 rsi_fade long rsi=28 (eve) |
| 03:14 AM | — | +1 | ? | — | — | +1 rsi_fade long rsi=22 (eve) |
| 03:34 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-54.50 | $-125.50 | +1 dbl_bottom 29612/29613 rsi19->35 |
| 03:35 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-87.00 | $-111.00 | +1 dbl_bottom 29612/29613 rsi19->35 |
| 04:00 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-141.50 | $109.00 | +1 bullish_div px29557<29548 rsi15<26 |
| 04:01 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-145.50 | $91.50 | +1 bullish_div px29557<29548 rsi15<26 |
| 04:02 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-66.00 | $130.00 | +1 bullish_div px29557<29548 rsi15<26 |
| 04:03 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-72.00 | $126.50 | +1 bullish_div px29557<29548 rsi15<26 |
| 04:03 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-72.00 | $126.50 | +1 dbl_bottom 29557/29548 rsi15->26 |
| 04:08 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $10.00 | $143.00 | +1 bullish_div px29548<29522 rsi26<38 |
| 04:09 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-16.50 | $149.50 | +1 bullish_div px29548<29522 rsi26<38 |
| 04:10 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $2.00 | $160.50 | +1 bullish_div px29548<29522 rsi26<38 |
| 04:11 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $46.50 | $234.00 | +1 bullish_div px29548<29522 rsi26<38 |
| 05:56 AM | — | -1 | ? | — | — | -1 ribbon_stack_dn(age=1) |
| 06:54 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-85.50 | $-183.50 | +1 bullish_div px29510<29503 rsi27<28 |
| 06:55 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-99.50 | $-187.50 | +1 bullish_div px29510<29503 rsi27<28 |
| 06:56 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-77.00 | $-186.00 | +1 bullish_div px29510<29503 rsi27<28 |
| 06:57 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-72.00 | $-162.50 | +1 bullish_div px29510<29503 rsi27<28 |
| 07:09 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $34.50 | $-131.00 | +1 bullish_div px29475<29473 rsi22<25 |
| 07:10 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $38.50 | $-141.00 | +1 bullish_div px29475<29473 rsi22<25 |
| 07:11 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $43.00 | $-123.00 | +1 bullish_div px29475<29473 rsi22<25 |
| 07:12 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $34.00 | $-150.50 | +1 bullish_div px29475<29473 rsi22<25 |
| 07:21 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $9.00 | $-97.50 | +1 bullish_div px29460<29447 rsi21<40 |
| 07:22 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-6.50 | $-121.00 | +1 bullish_div px29460<29447 rsi21<40 |
| 07:23 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-65.50 | $-138.50 | +1 bullish_div px29460<29447 rsi21<40 |
| 07:24 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-84.00 | $-223.50 | +1 bullish_div px29460<29447 rsi21<40 |
| 07:43 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-21.50 | $-167.00 | +1 bullish_div px29438<29436 rsi32<42 |
| 07:44 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-6.00 | $-146.50 | +1 bullish_div px29438<29436 rsi32<42 |
| 07:45 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $29.00 | $-128.50 | +1 bullish_div px29438<29436 rsi32<42 |
| 07:46 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $18.00 | $-108.00 | +1 bullish_div px29438<29436 rsi32<42 |
| 07:51 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-35.00 | $-53.50 | +1 oversold_bounce(rsi) rsi20->39 ttm_min-59 |
| 07:57 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-41.50 | $-50.00 | +1 oversold_bounce(macd) rsi20->45 ttm_min-59 |
| 08:38 AM | — | +1 | ? | — | — | +1 rsi_fade long rsi=30 (eve) |
| 08:39 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $57.50 | $-1.50 | +1 rsi_cross_up_30 |
| 08:49 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $58.00 | $-249.50 | +1 bullish_div px29366<29363 rsi30<36 |
| 08:50 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $78.00 | $-186.50 | +1 bullish_div px29366<29363 rsi30<36 |
| 08:51 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $70.50 | $-165.50 | +1 bullish_div px29366<29363 rsi30<36 |
| 08:51 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $70.50 | $-165.50 | +1 dbl_bottom 29366/29363 rsi30->36 |
| 08:52 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $96.00 | $-98.00 | +1 bullish_div px29366<29363 rsi30<36 |
| 09:41 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-122.50 | $89.00 | +1 oversold_bounce(rsi) rsi25->34 ttm_min-80 |
| 09:41 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-122.50 | $89.00 | +1 rsi_cross_up_30 |
| 09:51 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $284.00 | $217.00 | +1 oversold_bounce(rsi) rsi16->32 ttm_min-123 |
| 09:56 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $322.00 | $194.50 | +1 oversold_bounce(macd) rsi16->39 ttm_min-123 |
| 09:58 AM | short | -1 | cooldown 4s<5s | $-353.50 | $-226.50 | -1 bear[RT] <29389/vwap29414 rsi46 macd5.3 ttm-16 |
| 09:59 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $261.00 | $191.00 | +1 bullish_div px29265<29258 rsi16<39 |
| 10:00 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $289.00 | $212.00 | +1 bullish_div px29265<29258 rsi16<39 |
| 10:01 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $210.00 | $83.50 | +1 bullish_div px29265<29258 rsi16<39 |
| 10:02 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $173.00 | $127.00 | +1 bullish_div px29265<29258 rsi16<39 |
| 10:26 AM | — | +1 | ? | — | — | +1 ribbon_stack_up(age=1) |
| 10:36 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-147.00 | $-83.50 | +1 bull[R] >29411/vwap29420 rsi59 macd-0.8 ttm21 |
| 10:37 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-160.50 | $-105.50 | +1 bull[R] >29415/vwap29420 rsi58 macd-0.5 ttm20 |
| 10:41 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $84.50 | $85.50 | -1 bearish_div px29488>29509 rsi64>63 |
| 10:42 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $72.50 | $74.00 | -1 bearish_div px29488>29509 rsi64>63 |
| 10:43 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $79.50 | $136.00 | -1 bearish_div px29488>29509 rsi64>63 |
| 10:44 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $59.00 | $134.00 | -1 bearish_div px29488>29509 rsi64>63 |
| 11:04 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $38.50 | $145.50 | -1 bear[RT] <29445/vwap29422 rsi45 macd3.3 ttm-14 |
| 11:05 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $65.00 | $175.50 | -1 bear[RT] <29444/vwap29422 rsi43 macd1.9 ttm-17 |
| 11:06 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $68.50 | $128.50 | -1 bear[RT] <29442/vwap29421 rsi41 macd0.8 ttm-18 |
| 11:07 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $23.50 | $87.50 | -1 bear[M] <29440/vwap29421 rsi34 macd-1.1 ttm-33 |
| 11:08 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $1.00 | $63.00 | -1 bear[M] <29438/vwap29421 rsi30 macd-2.8 ttm-40 |
| 11:09 AM | short | -1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1 | $-38.00 | $65.00 | -1 bear[M] <29436/vwap29421 rsi30 macd-3.7 ttm-37 |
| 11:11 AM | — | -1 | ? | — | — | -1 ribbon_stack_dn(age=1) |
| 11:19 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $118.50 | $-171.50 | +1 dbl_bottom 29366/29336 rsi30->35 |
| 11:20 AM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $73.50 | $-232.00 | +1 dbl_bottom 29366/29336 rsi30->35 |
| 12:04 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-142.00 | $-96.00 | +1 rsi_cross_up_30 |
| 12:07 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-133.00 | $-57.50 | +1 oversold_bounce(rsi) rsi22->35 ttm_min-68 |
| 12:07 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-133.00 | $-57.50 | +1 rsi_cross_up_30 |
| 12:16 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $44.50 | $-15.50 | +1 oversold_bounce(rsi) rsi23->32 ttm_min-61 |
| 12:19 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $2.50 | $-25.00 | +1 oversold_bounce(rsi) rsi23->46 ttm_min-61 |
| 12:20 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $15.00 | $-9.00 | +1 bullish_div px29312<29279 rsi22<32 |
| 12:21 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $52.50 | $19.50 | +1 bullish_div px29312<29279 rsi22<32 |
| 12:22 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $67.00 | $-3.00 | +1 bullish_div px29312<29279 rsi22<32 |
| 01:02 PM | short | -1 | cooldown 1s<5s | $48.00 | $127.00 | -1 head_shoulders |
| 01:47 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $4.00 | $-7.00 | +1 oversold_bounce(rsi) rsi18->33 ttm_min-58 |
| 01:47 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $4.00 | $-7.00 | +1 rsi_cross_up_30 |
| 02:01 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $20.50 | $-82.50 | +1 dbl_bottom 29219/29224 rsi33->37 |
| 02:13 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $51.00 | $-140.50 | +1 bullish_div px29224<29223 rsi37<45 |
| 02:15 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $36.50 | $-116.00 | +1 bullish_div px29224<29223 rsi37<45 |
| 02:38 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-30.50 | $-157.00 | +1 rsi_cross_up_30 |
| 02:42 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-22.50 | $-112.00 | +1 oversold_bounce(rsi) rsi23->31 ttm_min-55 |
| 02:42 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-22.50 | $-112.00 | +1 rsi_cross_up_30 |
| 02:44 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-55.00 | $-237.00 | +1 bullish_div px29222<29198 rsi23<23 |
| 02:44 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-55.00 | $-237.00 | +1 dbl_bottom 29222/29198 rsi15->21 |
| 02:45 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-14.50 | $-226.00 | +1 bullish_div px29222<29198 rsi23<23 |
| 02:46 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-32.00 | $-261.50 | +1 bullish_div px29222<29198 rsi23<23 |
| 02:47 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-3.50 | $-292.00 | +1 bullish_div px29222<29198 rsi23<23 |
| 02:47 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-3.50 | $-292.00 | +1 dbl_bottom 29222/29198 rsi15->21 |
| 02:52 PM | short | -1 | sc02_gate p=0.209 vs 0.15 | $90.50 | $155.50 | -1 bear[R] <29257/vwap29318 rsi49 macd3.0 ttm3 |
| 02:53 PM | short | -1 | sc02_gate p=0.216 vs 0.15 | $77.50 | $125.50 | -1 bear[RT] <29256/vwap29318 rsi39 macd1.8 ttm-8 |
| 02:54 PM | short | -1 | sc02_gate p=0.217 vs 0.15 | $71.50 | $45.00 | -1 bear[RT] <29254/vwap29318 rsi34 macd0.5 ttm-14 |
| 02:57 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-73.50 | $-40.50 | +1 rsi_cross_up_30 |
| 03:02 PM | short | -1 | sc02_gate p=0.235 vs 0.15 | $142.50 | $21.50 | -1 bear[RT] <29242/vwap29316 rsi48 macd0.1 ttm-9 |
| 03:03 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-139.00 | $-61.50 | +1 dbl_bottom 29198/29200 rsi21->45 |
| 03:05 PM | short | -1 | sc02_gate p=0.235 vs 0.15 | $132.00 | $76.50 | -1 bear[T] <29239/vwap29316 rsi51 macd2.2 ttm-0 |
| 03:07 PM | short | -1 | sc02_gate p=0.271 vs 0.15 | $83.00 | $28.50 | -1 bear[RT] <29236/vwap29315 rsi39 macd1.0 ttm-21 |
| 03:08 PM | short | -1 | sc02_gate p=0.302 vs 0.15 | $90.50 | $0.50 | -1 bear[RMT] <29235/vwap29315 rsi34 macd-0.9 ttm-31 |
| 03:09 PM | short | -1 | sc02_gate p=0.281 vs 0.15 | $67.00 | $9.00 | -1 bear[RMT] <29233/vwap29315 rsi32 macd-2.3 ttm-33 |
| 03:10 PM | short | -1 | sc02_gate p=0.279 vs 0.15 | $89.00 | $-1.00 | -1 bear[M] <29231/vwap29314 rsi31 macd-3.3 ttm-34 |
| 03:19 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-43.00 | $42.00 | +1 oversold_bounce(rsi) rsi16->37 ttm_min-53 |
| 03:19 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $-43.00 | $42.00 | +1 rsi_cross_up_30 |
| 03:23 PM | short | -1 | sc02_gate p=0.263 vs 0.15 | $15.00 | $-59.50 | -1 bear[R] <29211/vwap29311 rsi41 macd-0.2 ttm-24 |
| 03:24 PM | short | -1 | sc02_gate p=0.272 vs 0.15 | $6.50 | $-86.50 | -1 bear[R] <29209/vwap29311 rsi33 macd-0.9 ttm-36 |
| 03:32 PM | short | -1 | sc02_gate p=0.277 vs 0.15 | $62.00 | $-101.00 | -1 bear[M] <29195/vwap29307 rsi33 macd-0.2 ttm-36 |
| 03:36 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $45.00 | $83.00 | +1 bullish_div px29119<29117 rsi34<42 |
| 03:37 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $75.50 | $121.00 | +1 bullish_div px29119<29117 rsi34<42 |
| 03:38 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $54.50 | $99.00 | +1 bullish_div px29119<29117 rsi34<42 |
| 03:38 PM | long | +1 | ms_gate trend=-1 ev=- run=6 | $54.50 | $99.00 | +1 dbl_bottom 29119/29117 rsi34->42 |
| 03:39 PM | long | +1 | counter_trend vs SMA50x200=-1 | $81.50 | $57.00 | +1 bullish_div px29119<29117 rsi34<42 |
| 03:39 PM | long | +1 | ms_gate trend=-1 ev=- run=6 | $81.50 | $57.00 | +1 dbl_bottom 29119/29117 rsi34->42 |
| 03:44 PM | short | -1 | sc02_gate p=0.222 vs 0.15 | $-152.00 | $-70.50 | -1 bear[RT] <29172/vwap29304 rsi45 macd3.7 ttm-3 |
| 03:45 PM | short | -1 | sc02_gate p=0.259 vs 0.15 | $-173.00 | $-119.00 | -1 bear[RT] <29171/vwap29304 rsi35 macd1.5 ttm-23 |
| Window | aiprediction | Our result | Move | Missed $ | Reason | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| session | bearish | loss | -524.2 | — | missed_down_trend | aiprediction trend=bearish, actual MNQ move=-524.2pt (down); our session net=$-696.5 (loss) |
| gate_vetoes | bearish | suppressed | — | $462.00 | sc02_gate_suppression | 14 gate-vetoed signals; $462.0 of +60m hypothetical upside skipped (gate also avoids losers -- net effect tracked separately) |
| Entry | Strat | Dir | In | Out | Pts | P/L | Exit | Grade | Lesson |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:15 PM | ict | short | 29714.00 | 29710.75 | 3.3 | $6.50 | trend_ride_end:htf_flip | good_exit | Let the htf_flip exit rule keep doing its job of cutting winners fast rather than holding for the full TP on 1-bar scalps. |
| 07:18 PM | selloff | short | 29704.00 | 29706.75 | -2.8 | $-5.50 | selloff_rsi30_cover | unlucky | Investigate why score/rsi read 0.0 at entry — don't let trades fire when confluence indicators aren't actually populated. |
| 08:36 PM | selloff | short | 29665.50 | 29644.75 | 20.8 | $41.50 | rsi_extreme_exit(rsi=30) | good_exit | Keep using the RSI-extreme early-exit rule on quick countertrend pops rather than holding for full TP. |
| 08:50 PM | selloff | short | 29630.50 | 29660.50 | -30.0 | $-60.00 | tick_sl | good_exit | When momentum doesn't extend within the first bar or two, the tight tick-SL is doing its job — don't second-guess it by widening stops after confluence entries. |
| 08:55 PM | selloff | short | 29643.25 | 29656.00 | -12.8 | $-25.50 | ha10s_loss_cut | good_exit | When RT bear signals stall within a few bars, trust the quick loss-cut instead of waiting for the wider SL/TP. |
| 09:00 PM | selloff | short | 29654.00 | 29642.25 | 11.8 | $23.50 | be_lock_tick peaked+21.5pt gaveback_to+11.8pt | good_exit | Consider tightening the breakeven-lock trail so peak gains aren't given back so heavily on fast 1-bar reversals. |
| 09:01 PM | selloff | short | 29641.25 | 29660.50 | -19.3 | $-38.50 | ha10s_loss_cut | good_entry | Consider a wider initial stop or a brief confirmation delay on RT signals to avoid getting shaken out by normal 3-bar noise. |
| 09:05 PM | selloff | short | 29652.75 | 29623.50 | 29.3 | $58.50 | rsi_extreme_exit(rsi=29) | good_exit | Keep using RSI-extreme as an early-exit trigger on fast movers instead of holding for the fixed TP. |
| 09:42 PM | selloff | short | 29618.50 | 29647.50 | -29.0 | $-58.00 | tick_sl | good_exit | When a valid confluence short stalls immediately without follow-through, treat the fast stop-out as the system working correctly, not a signal to loosen stops. |
| 10:00 PM | selloff | short | 29641.50 | 29634.25 | 7.3 | $14.50 | be_lock_tick peaked+15.2pt gaveback_to+7.2pt | good_exit | On fast double-top RSI fades, consider tightening the trail sooner after peak favorable excursion instead of letting it give back half the gain. |
| 10:42 PM | selloff | short | 29687.75 | 29678.50 | 9.3 | $18.50 | trend_ride_end:sma_invalidate | good_exit | Keep taking quick profits on trend-invalidate exits after fast momentum reversals instead of holding for the full TP target. |
| 10:49 PM | selloff | long | 29702.50 | 29713.75 | 11.3 | $22.50 | be_lock_tick peaked+49.2pt gaveback_to+11.2pt | good_entry | Tighten the breakeven-lock trail (or scale out) once profit exceeds ~3x ATR so a strong runner can't erode into a marginal winner. |
| 11:30 PM | selloff | long | 29735.50 | 29718.50 | -17.0 | $-34.00 | ha10s_loss_cut | unlucky | Nothing to change mechanically; this is the expected cost of taking valid signals that don't follow through. |
| 11:52 PM | selloff | long | 29722.25 | 29734.00 | 11.8 | $23.50 | be_lock_tick peaked+27.2pt gaveback_to+11.8pt | good_exit | Consider tightening the giveback trail once a trade is up more than ~2x its ATR so peaks like +27.2pt don't shrink to +11.8pt. |
| 12:11 AM | selloff | long | 29740.75 | 29715.75 | -27.4 | $-109.50 | llm_rescue_exit:5m trend DOWN, CHoCH_DOWN, price under b | unlucky | Check 5m trend alignment before entry, not just the trigger timeframe, to avoid getting rescued out of otherwise-valid setups. |
| 12:31 AM | selloff | long | 29720.25 | 29715.25 | -5.0 | $-10.00 | llm_rescue_exit:5m TREND flipped DOWN against LONG, 1m H | unlucky | When 5m trend disagrees with a 1m reversal signal, either skip the entry or size down, since the rescue-exit is a safety net, not a strategy. |
| 01:43 AM | selloff | long | 29710.75 | 29697.25 | -13.5 | $-27.00 | llm_rescue_exit:5m trend DOWN vs LONG, price under both | marginal | Require the 5m trend to agree with (or at least be flat toward) reversal signals before entering, since dbl_bottom alone against a falling higher-timeframe trend is low-quality. |
| 01:49 AM | selloff | long | 29693.25 | 29687.25 | -6.0 | $-12.00 | llm_rescue_exit:Both EMAs lost, HA red x6, 5m trend neut | unlucky | When both EMA trend filters and 6 consecutive HA candles flip against a fresh entry, treat it as decisive counter-evidence and exit immediately rather than waiting for the fixed stop. |
| 01:59 AM | selloff | short | 29687.75 | 29710.25 | -22.5 | $-45.00 | tick_sl | good_exit | Nothing to fix here — this is the system working as designed: small defined-risk loss when price immediately invalidated the setup. |
| 02:05 AM | selloff | short | 29676.50 | 29667.25 | 9.3 | $18.50 | be_lock_tick peaked+17.2pt gaveback_to+9.2pt | good_exit | Consider trailing tighter than 17.2->9.2pt giveback on 1-bar scalps so more of the peak favorable excursion is kept. |
| 02:06 AM | selloff | short | 29668.50 | 29655.50 | 13.0 | $26.00 | be_lock_tick peaked+21.0pt gaveback_to+13.0pt | good_exit | On fast 1-bar spikes past +15-20pt, consider tightening the trail faster since MNQ selloff momentum often reverses within the same minute. |
| 02:41 AM | selloff | short | 29672.25 | 29668.00 | 4.3 | $8.50 | llm_rescue_exit:5m neutral, 1m HA flipped green vs short | good_exit | Don't short on regime label alone when RSI/MACD are flat near zero — require actual momentum confirmation, not just a sub-VWAP price. |
| 02:52 AM | selloff | short | 29673.75 | 29694.00 | -20.3 | $-40.50 | tick_sl | unlucky | Consider widening the stop slightly or waiting for a confirming pullback on borderline-RSI (~49, barely bearish) entries to avoid getting tick-stopped on noise. |
| 03:23 AM | selloff | short | 29636.00 | 29621.25 | 8.6 | $34.50 | be_lock_tick peaked+16.6pt gaveback_to+8.6pt | good_entry | Tighten the breakeven-lock trail distance so profit peaks aren't given back by ~50% on quick 5-bar scalps. |
| 04:24 AM | selloff | short | 29523.50 | 29536.25 | -12.8 | $-25.50 | ha10s_loss_cut | good_exit | Keep the fast loss-cut on marginal-score (~48) entries since it caps bad reads far below the nominal stop size. |
| 04:30 AM | selloff | short | 29539.25 | 29545.00 | -5.8 | $-11.50 | llm_rescue_exit:HA green x5, price broke above EMA13/EMA | good_exit | Trust rescue exits on rapid trend-invalidation signals rather than holding to the stop, since a fast reversal after entry is a strong signal the setup already failed. |
| 05:20 AM | selloff | short | 29620.00 | 29622.75 | -2.8 | $-5.50 | llm_rescue_exit:5m trend UP against short, 1m HA flipped | mistake | Require 5m trend alignment (or explicit override logic) before taking counter-trend reversal shorts on the 1m. |
| 05:24 AM | selloff | short | 29623.50 | 29636.25 | -12.8 | $-25.50 | llm_rescue_exit:5m trend flipped UP vs short, price abov | mistake | Require the higher-timeframe (5m) trend to already be flipped before taking a countertrend short off a double-top, not just falling RSI on the entry timeframe. |
| 05:27 AM | selloff | short | 29624.00 | 29621.50 | 2.5 | $5.00 | llm_rescue_exit:HA flipped green, price above both EMAs, | good_exit | When HA flips green above both EMAs, treat it as an immediate short-invalidation signal even if the original setup looked sound. |
| 06:11 AM | selloff | short | 29543.50 | 29520.50 | 23.0 | $46.00 | rsi_extreme_exit(rsi=29) | good_exit | Keep using the RSI-extreme exit to lock gains fast on scalps rather than holding for the full TP. |
| 06:23 AM | selloff | short | 29520.75 | 29548.25 | -27.5 | $-55.00 | tick_sl | unlucky | Consider whether a slightly wider stop or partial profit-taking on early favorable excursion would reduce being stopped out on confirmed-signal trades that stall. |
| 06:35 AM | selloff | short | 29538.75 | 29513.25 | 25.5 | $51.00 | rsi_extreme_exit(rsi=27) | good_entry | Keep using RSI-extreme exits to lock in fast momentum wins rather than holding for a fixed TP that may never fill. |
| 06:40 AM | selloff | short | 29516.00 | 29505.75 | 10.3 | $20.50 | rsi_extreme_exit(rsi=28) | good_exit | Letting the rsi_extreme_exit trigger on oversold RSI locked in a small quick win instead of holding for the full TP — fine on demo, but track whether this exit consistently leaves points on the table. |
| 08:39 AM | selloff | short | 29381.25 | 29375.25 | 6.0 | $12.00 | selloff_rsi30_cover | good_exit | On fast 1-bar scalps like this, consider trailing or scaling out instead of a flat rsi30 cover so a clean directional read isn't capped at a small partial gain. |
| 08:51 AM | selloff | short | 29391.25 | 29411.00 | -19.8 | $-39.50 | llm_rescue_exit:CHOCH_UP, HA green x7 against short, pri | unlucky | A CHOCH reversal signal that flips this fast after entry is often noise on a low-conviction score (~53) — consider requiring a stronger score threshold or one extra confirmation bar before rescue-exiting so soon. |
| 08:58 AM | selloff | short | 29395.25 | 29409.25 | -14.0 | $-28.00 | ha10s_loss_cut | good_exit | The quick ha10s_loss_cut worked as designed — keep it tight on marginal-score selloff shorts near round-number levels. |
| 09:53 AM | ict | short | 29312.75 | 29343.00 | -30.3 | $-60.50 | tick_sl | mistake | Require MACD and RSI to both confirm directional bias before entry; don't short into positive MACD momentum. |
| 09:54 AM | ict | short | 29287.50 | 29276.50 | 11.0 | $22.00 | be_lock_tick peaked+20.5pt gaveback_to+11.0pt | good_entry | Tighten the be-lock trail distance (or add a partial-profit take) so a 20pt+ favorable excursion doesn't erode to roughly half before locking out. |
| 09:55 AM | ict | short | 29295.25 | 29325.25 | -30.0 | $-60.00 | tick_sl | good_exit | With ATR ~44pts, a 30pt stop is tight relative to volatility; consider sizing the stop to ATR to avoid getting shaken out on valid setups. |
| 09:58 AM | ict | long | 29337.25 | 29344.50 | 7.3 | $14.50 | be_lock_tick peaked+15.5pt gaveback_to+7.2pt | good_exit | On ict double-bottom longs, consider a wider trail step or partial-profit take once +10pt is reached instead of letting a tight be_lock give back two-thirds of the peak. |
| 10:20 AM | ict | short | 29445.75 | 29439.00 | 6.8 | $13.50 | be_lock_tick peaked+15.0pt gaveback_to+6.8pt | good_exit | On a fast +15pt spike, widen or step the be-lock trail instead of letting it give back over 50% of peak profit. |
| 10:21 AM | ict | short | 29420.75 | 29412.00 | 8.8 | $17.50 | be_lock_tick peaked+16.8pt gaveback_to+8.8pt | good_exit | Consider tightening the giveback tolerance on be_lock_tick trades that peak fast, since a 1-bar hold surrendering half its peak profit suggests the trail is too loose for quick reversals. |
| 10:27 AM | ict | long | 29470.25 | 29476.00 | 5.8 | $11.50 | be_lock_tick peaked+17.0pt gaveback_to+5.8pt | marginal | Tighten the trail once price extends well past TP-adjacent profit (e.g. lock more than breakeven after +10pt) instead of giving back to near-scratch. |
| 10:29 AM | ict | long | 29476.50 | 29463.00 | -13.5 | $-27.00 | ha10s_loss_cut | mistake | Skip longs when MACD is negative even if RSI/price look bullish — that divergence is the tell for a quick fade. |
| 10:32 AM | ict | long | 29475.00 | 29459.75 | -15.3 | $-30.50 | reversal_flip_long | marginal | Require stronger MACD confirmation (not just RSI>55) before taking ICT longs to avoid quick reversal flips. |
| 10:37 AM | ict | long | 29489.50 | 29455.00 | -34.5 | $-69.00 | tick_sl | good_entry | No process change needed; this is variance within an otherwise valid ICT confluence entry. |
| 10:43 AM | ict | long | 29462.25 | 29469.00 | 6.8 | $13.50 | be_lock_tick peaked+15.0pt gaveback_to+6.8pt | good_entry | Tighten the trail/lock distance once a trade reaches ~2x SL in profit so peak gains aren't given back so easily. |
| 11:14 AM | ict | long | 29357.00 | 29352.25 | -4.8 | $-9.50 | trend_flip_long | unlucky | Consider a minimum hold/confirmation bar before letting trend_flip exits override a fresh confluence entry on ict. |
| 11:17 AM | ict | long | 29365.00 | 29379.25 | 14.3 | $28.50 | be_lock_tick peaked+22.2pt gaveback_to+14.2pt | good_exit | On fast 1-bar spikes like this, consider tightening the giveback allowance so peaks near +20pt aren't handing back a third of the move before locking. |
| 11:20 AM | ict | short | 29372.50 | 29361.25 | 11.3 | $22.50 | be_lock_tick peaked+23.0pt gaveback_to+11.2pt | marginal | Tighten the be_lock trail distance on fast-moving ICT setups so early peaks aren't given back to nearly 50%. |
| 11:28 AM | ict | short | 29389.25 | 29406.75 | -17.5 | $-35.00 | trend_flip_short | good_exit | Trend-flip exits on ICT scalps are doing their job — small fast losses here are the cost of a system that avoids riding a reversal to the full stop. |
| 11:30 AM | ict | short | 29389.00 | 29419.00 | -30.0 | $-60.00 | tick_sl | good_exit | Consider a small ATR-based buffer or slight delay on the tick_sl to avoid single-bar wick stop-outs on otherwise valid setups. |
| 11:41 AM | ict | short | 29392.00 | 29404.25 | -12.3 | $-24.50 | trend_flip_short | good_exit | Trust the trend-flip exit on ict entries that reverse within 1-2 bars — it's saving more than it costs. |
| 11:55 AM | ict | short | 29387.75 | 29402.50 | -14.8 | $-29.50 | trend_flip_short | good_entry | When entry logic and exit logic disagree (short signal but trend-flip triggers fast), consider widening the trend-flip sensitivity or requiring 1-2 more confirming bars before flipping out of a fresh position. |
| 12:18 PM | ict | long | 29312.00 | 29299.50 | -12.5 | $-25.00 | ha10s_loss_cut | unlucky | A 1-bar heikin-ashi loss-cut is stopping trades out before the underlying signal gets any room to work — consider requiring a minimum hold or wider initial buffer before that exit activates. |
| 12:21 PM | ict | long | 29283.25 | 29270.25 | -13.0 | $-26.00 | trend_flip_long | marginal | Require the trend-flip confirmation to hold for more than 1 bar before entering, not just at the moment of signal. |
| 12:26 PM | ict | long | 29288.00 | 29305.75 | 17.8 | $35.50 | be_lock_tick peaked+25.8pt gaveback_to+17.8pt | good_exit | Consider trailing tighter once a fast 1-bar spike exceeds ~20pt to lock more of the peak instead of giving back ~8pt on the retrace. |
| 12:35 PM | ict | short | 29301.00 | 29294.00 | 7.0 | $14.00 | reversal_flip_short | good_exit | Respect reversal-flip exits on shallow-momentum ict shorts — banking small profit beats holding for a distant TP that never had strong follow-through. |
| 12:44 PM | ict | long | 29294.50 | 29284.75 | -9.8 | $-19.50 | trend_flip_long | unlucky | A 1-bar exit on trend_flip right after entry suggests the flip filter is too twitchy relative to the ICT entry timing — consider requiring flip confirmation to persist for 2+ bars before overriding a fresh entry. |
| 12:46 PM | ict | long | 29286.50 | 29279.00 | -7.5 | $-15.00 | trend_flip_long | unlucky | On 1-bar trend-flip exits after a clean reclaim signal, consider requiring 2-bar confirmation before flipping to avoid getting shaken out on the first wobble. |
| 01:00 PM | ict | short | 29299.25 | 29305.00 | -5.8 | $-11.50 | trend_flip_short | good_exit | Let the trend-flip exit do its job on marginal-momentum entries — cheap, fast losses like this are the cost of staying out of bigger drawdowns. |
| 01:02 PM | ict | short | 29290.50 | 29311.75 | -21.3 | $-42.50 | ha10s_loss_cut | unlucky | Confluence-based short entries are fine here; consider whether the 10s HA loss-cut is firing too early relative to ATR (22.5) and cutting winners-in-waiting as noise. |
| 01:09 PM | ict | short | 29323.25 | 29324.25 | -1.0 | $-2.00 | trend_flip_short | unlucky | Add a minimum-hold filter so a same-direction trend-flip signal can't exit a trade within 1 bar of entry — that's noise, not confirmation. |
| 01:37 PM | ict | short | 29273.25 | 29286.50 | -13.3 | $-26.50 | ha10s_loss_cut | good_exit | No process error here — fast ha10s_loss_cut did its job keeping a bad tick from becoming a bigger loss. |
| 01:51 PM | ict | short | 29245.75 | 29264.25 | -18.5 | $-37.00 | ha10s_loss_cut | good_exit | Keep the early heikin-ashi loss-cut active on ict entries — it's doing its job trimming losers before they reach full stop distance. |
| 01:54 PM | ict | short | 29252.25 | 29240.50 | 11.8 | $23.50 | be_lock_tick peaked+27.8pt gaveback_to+11.8pt | good_exit | The give-back from +27.8pt to +11.8pt suggests the trail could lock profit tighter on ICT setups to capture more of the initial move. |
| 01:59 PM | ict | short | 29239.25 | 29251.50 | -12.3 | $-24.50 | ha10s_loss_cut | good_exit | Entries on marginal score/RSI near 45 with only 1-bar hold are noise-prone — the loss-cut protocol did its job here. |
| 02:02 PM | ict | short | 29241.50 | 29234.75 | 6.8 | $13.50 | be_lock_tick peaked+15.0pt gaveback_to+6.8pt | good_exit | Consider trailing a bit looser or scaling out at +10-15pt on ict setups, since this trade gave back over half its peak gain before the stop caught it. |
| 02:14 PM | ict | short | 29233.50 | 29225.75 | 7.8 | $15.50 | be_lock_tick peaked+15.8pt gaveback_to+7.8pt | good_exit | Consider a partial-profit or tighter trail once a trade is up 10+pt in 1 bar, since gaveback ate over half the peak gain here. |
| 02:15 PM | ict | short | 29232.75 | 29264.25 | -31.5 | $-63.00 | tick_sl | good_entry | On 1-bar tick-stop losses with valid confluence, don't second-guess the signal logic; the entry criteria did their job. |
| 02:25 PM | ict | short | 29273.75 | 29287.00 | -13.3 | $-26.50 | ha10s_loss_cut | good_exit | When an entry fails to gain traction within a bar or two, treat that as its own signal and cut early rather than waiting for the full stop-loss. |
| 02:27 PM | ict | short | 29281.50 | 29277.75 | 3.8 | $7.50 | trend_flip_short | good_exit | Treat instant trend-flip exits on fresh entries as a signal the trigger condition is too noisy/fast for the timeframe, not as a win to repeat. |
| Date | Trades | Win% | PF | Net P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | 34 | 35.3% | 0.29 | $-1150.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | 28 | 21.4% | 0.4 | $-741.50 |
| 2026-08-10 | 18 | 16.7% | 0.03 | $-1030.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | 15 | 26.7% | 0.05 | $-512.00 |
| 2026-08-06 | 25 | 32% | 1.07 | $52.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | 19 | 26.3% | 0.32 | $-440.50 |
| 2026-08-04 | 16 | 31.2% | 5.55 | $1641.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | 23 | 30.4% | 0.67 | $-244.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | 25 | 36% | 0.67 | $-303.00 |
| 2026-07-30 | 62 | 54.8% | 1.1 | $102.50 |
| 2026-07-29 | 49 | 49% | 0.14 | $-3827.00 |
| 2026-07-28 | 68 | 51.5% | 39.88 | $41254.50 |
| 2026-07-27 | 49 | 59.2% | 1.25 | $152.00 |
| 2026-07-24 | 54 | 48.1% | 0.68 | $-305.50 |
| 2026-07-23 | 53 | 49.1% | 0.88 | $-94.00 |
| 2026-07-22 | 31 | 51.6% | 0.65 | $-157.50 |
| 2026-07-21 | 49 | 38.8% | 0.31 | $-1243.50 |
| 2026-07-20 | 15 | 46.7% | 0.3 | $-502.50 |
| 2026-07-17 | 11 | 36.4% | 0.42 | $-202.00 |
| 2026-07-16 | 72 | 43.1% | 0.5 | $-696.50 |
| 2026-07-15 | 46 | 65.2% | 1.44 | $361.50 |
| 2026-07-14 | 212 | 49.5% | 0.84 | $-445.00 |
| 2026-07-13 | 57 | 64.9% | 1.26 | $133.50 |
| 2026-07-03 | 39 | 35.9% | 0.62 | $-188.00 |
| 2026-07-02 | 77 | 36.4% | 0.91 | $-67.00 |
| 2026-07-01 | 45 | 37.8% | 0.73 | $-134.00 |
| 2026-06-30 | 53 | 39.6% | 0.84 | $-120.00 |
| 2026-06-29 | 39 | 51.3% | 1.35 | $589.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | 22 | 54.5% | 0.92 | $-139.00 |
| 2026-06-25 | 54 | 42.6% | 1.08 | $110.00 |