Trading Report

Session 2026-07-02 · signal_gen MNQ · updated daily after 17:00 ET

Events: Average Hourly Earnings m/m; Non-Farm Employment Change; Unemployment Rate

down, high-vol, MNQ move -546.0pt, range 989.2pt

Net P/L

$-67.00

Trades

Win rate

36.4%

Profit factor

0.91

Best / Worst

$103.50 / $-48.50

Avg hold

1.8m

SPX Close Prediction · from 0DTE option flow (GEX/P-C) · butterfly body

Predicted close

7480.0

Range (wings)

7470.0 – 7485.7

Actual close

7482.7

Error

2.7 pt

Butterfly: center the body near 7480.0, wings around 7470.0/7485.7. Per-source levels — v82: 7480.0/7480.0 · v83: 7470.0/7470.0 · v51a: 7480.7/7485.7.

Date	Predicted	Range	Actual	Error (pt)
2026-08-12	7747.5	7745.0 – 7753.2	7748.5	1.0
2026-08-11	7720.0	7720.0 – 7725.0	7722.5	2.5
2026-08-10	7750.0	7750.0 – 7750.0	7749.8	0.2
2026-08-07	7756.6	7750.0 – 7760.0	7758.1	1.5
2026-08-06	7707.5	7705.0 – 7710.0	7710.1	2.6
2026-08-05	7729.9	7730.0 – 7735.0	7731.9	2.0
2026-08-04	7742.5	7736.5 – 7745.0	7736.5	6.0
2026-08-03	7597.5	7500.0 – 7602.0	7598.8	1.3
2026-07-31	7488.3	7400.0 – 7500.0	7489.8	1.5
2026-07-30	7438.7	7410.0 – 7440.0	7438.0	0.7
2026-07-29	7309.9	7312.4 – 7325.0	7314.4	4.5
2026-07-28	7427.5	7425.0 – 7430.0	7428.9	1.4
2026-07-27	7412.5	7405.0 – 7415.0	7413.0	0.5
2026-07-24	7410.0	7400.0 – 7410.0	7408.5	1.5
2026-07-23	7406.1	7400.0 – 7410.0	7408.1	2.0

Market Analysis

Instrument	Close	Change	%	Range	Trend	Support	Resistance	Note
SPX	7483.24	-11.9	-0.16%	113.2	down	7480	7480	S&P 500 cash index (Yahoo); GEX walls 7480.0/7480.0
ES	7523.00	-13.0	-0.17%	114.3	down	—	—	S&P 500 future (Yahoo ES=F)
NQ/MNQ	29555.50	-546.0	-1.81%	989.3	down	—	—	Nasdaq-100 future MNQU6
NDX	29329.21	-449.5	-1.51%	957.2	down	—	—	Nasdaq-100 cash index (Yahoo)

Signals vs Orders

Signals taken

Suppressed

Gate vetoes

Time	Dir	Module	Suppressed by	Hypo +15m	Hypo +60m	Detail
06:49 PM	long	+1	cooldown 9s<60s	$10.50	$-123.00	+1 golden_cross sma50x200 \| llm-ok
08:45 PM	—	+1	?	—	—	+1 rsi_fade long rsi=26 (eve)
08:48 PM	long	+1	cooldown 39s<60s	$219.50	$407.50	+1 llm_trigger Range-bound; higher-low bounce off 30013, HA gre
09:24 PM	long	+1	cooldown 49s<60s	$68.00	$1.00	+1 llm_trigger Uptrend intact, pulled back to EMA13, RSI cooled
09:38 PM	short	-1	counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1	$23.00	$36.50	-1 rsi_fade short rsi=76
11:59 PM	short	-1	cooldown 9s<60s	$85.00	$115.00	-1 death_cross sma50x200
01:30 AM	—	+1	?	—	—	+1 rsi_fade long rsi=19 (eve)
01:31 AM	—	+1	?	—	—	+1 rsi_fade long rsi=14 (eve)
01:32 AM	—	+1	?	—	—	+1 rsi_fade long rsi=13 (eve)
01:39 AM	—	+1	?	—	—	+1 rsi_fade long rsi=9 (eve)
04:03 AM	short	-1	cooldown 38s<60s	$64.50	$-188.00	-1 llm_trigger 5m downtrend, rally rejected at EMA13/50, HA red
04:13 AM	—	+1	?	—	—	+1 rsi_fade long rsi=29 (eve)
05:02 AM	long	+1	cooldown 49s<60s	$-68.00	$-123.50	+1 golden_cross sma50x200 \| llm-ok
05:34 AM	short	-1	counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1	$39.00	$52.00	-1 rsi_fade short rsi=76
06:20 AM	—	-1	?	—	—	-1 ribbon_stack_dn(age=1)
06:39 AM	short	-1	counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1	$-3.50	$-94.50	-1 rsi_fade short rsi=75
07:01 AM	short	-1	counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1	$6.00	$-38.50	-1 rsi_fade short rsi=77
07:31 AM	short	-1	cooldown 28s<60s	$-121.50	$-479.00	-1 llm_trigger Range-bound (SMA50 neutral), rejected near range
07:42 AM	short	-1	counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1	$-2.00	$-439.00	-1 rsi_fade short rsi=72
08:08 AM	short	-1	counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1	$-83.50	$-57.00	-1 rsi_fade short rsi=75
08:14 AM	short	-1	counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1	$-101.00	$-20.50	-1 rsi_fade short rsi=82
08:26 AM	short	-1	counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1	$-161.50	$24.50	-1 rsi_fade short rsi=73
08:38 AM	short	-1	counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1	$190.50	$517.50	-1 rsi_fade short rsi=81
09:57 AM	—	+1	?	—	—	+1 ribbon_stack_up(age=1)
10:42 AM	short	-1	news_gate BULLISH c=0.65	$116.00	$179.00	-1 death_cross sma50x200
10:43 AM	short	-1	news_gate BULLISH c=0.65	$32.00	$163.00	-1 death_cross sma50x200
10:44 AM	short	-1	news_gate BULLISH c=0.65	$-97.00	$151.50	-1 death_cross sma50x200
10:47 AM	short	-1	news_gate BULLISH c=0.65	$62.00	$201.00	-1 death_cross sma50x200
11:55 AM	—	-1	?	—	—	-1 llm_trigger Downleg lower lows; bounce rejected at EMA13/50,
01:31 PM	short	-1	cooldown 48s<60s	$163.00	$-120.00	-1 llm_trigger Downtrend intact (HTF SMA50 down); rally into EM
02:31 PM	short	-1	cooldown 29s<60s	$97.00	$125.50	-1 rsi_fade short rsi=78
03:18 PM	short	-1	cooldown 12s<60s	$-117.50	$-323.00	-1 llm_trigger Downtrend intact, rejected at EMA13/50, HA flipp

Missed Opportunities & Trend Check

Window	aiprediction	Our result	Move	Missed $	Reason	Note
session	bullish	loss	-546.0	—	trend_day_not_captured	aiprediction trend=bullish, actual MNQ move=-546.0pt (down); our session net=$-67.0 (loss)

Trades (77)

Entry	Strat	Dir	In	Out	Pts	P/L	Exit	Grade
06:42 PM	trend_ma	long	30105.75	30102.50	-3.3	$-6.50	ha10s_loss_cut	—
06:45 PM	trend_ma	long	30103.75	30087.50	-16.3	$-32.50	ha10s_loss_cut	—
06:58 PM	llm	long	30110.25	30107.50	-2.8	$-5.50	avgdown_stop:structure_against trend=-1 ev=- (2.8pt)	—
08:19 PM	llm	short	29979.50	29985.50	-6.0	$-12.00	ha10s_loss_cut	—
08:20 PM	llm	short	29994.00	30018.25	-24.3	$-48.50	overseer_cover	—
08:32 PM	llm	long	30041.00	30051.00	10.0	$20.00	trend_ride_end:htf_flip	—
08:34 PM	llm	long	30050.00	30064.00	14.0	$28.00	trend_ride_end:htf_flip	—
08:36 PM	llm	long	30072.50	30069.25	-3.3	$-6.50	ha10s_loss_cut	—
08:37 PM	llm	long	30068.50	30057.25	-11.3	$-22.50	ha10s_loss_cut	—
08:39 PM	llm	long	30059.75	30054.25	-5.5	$-11.00	ha10s_loss_cut	—
08:40 PM	llm	long	30051.75	30030.25	-21.5	$-43.00	ha10s_loss_cut	—
08:45 PM	llm	short	30009.75	30019.75	-10.0	$-20.00	ha10s_loss_cut	—
09:13 PM	trend_ma	long	30182.50	30185.50	3.0	$6.00	llm_rescue_exit:HA red x2 bars vs long, at session high,	—
09:18 PM	trend_ma	long	30189.75	30182.75	-7.0	$-14.00	ha10s_loss_cut	—
09:24 PM	llm	long	30195.00	30191.75	-3.3	$-6.50	ha10s_loss_cut	—
09:25 PM	llm	long	30199.25	30180.75	-18.5	$-37.00	ha10s_loss_cut	—
09:50 PM	llm	long	30216.75	30199.00	-11.1	$-44.50	sma50_touch	—
10:06 PM	llm	long	30217.75	30213.00	-4.8	$-9.50	ha10s_loss_cut	—
10:07 PM	llm	long	30210.25	30216.25	6.0	$12.00	llm_rescue_exit:HA flipped red against long in profit, t	—
11:56 PM	llm	long	30182.25	30179.25	-3.0	$-6.00	ha10s_loss_cut	—
12:05 AM	selloff	short	30153.75	30153.25	0.5	$2.00	overseer_cover	—
01:04 AM	llm	long	30129.00	30139.75	10.8	$21.50	trend_ride_end:sma_invalidate	—
01:06 AM	llm	long	30138.50	30144.50	6.0	$12.00	trend_ride_end:sma_invalidate	—
01:08 AM	llm	long	30141.75	30150.50	8.8	$17.50	trend_ride_end:sma_invalidate	—
01:32 AM	llm	short	30092.75	30095.75	-3.0	$-6.00	ha10s_loss_cut	—
01:33 AM	llm	short	30087.75	30088.75	-1.0	$-2.00	rsi_extreme_exit(rsi=12)	—
02:45 AM	llm	short	29963.00	29963.00	0.0	$0.00	overseer_cover	—
02:46 AM	llm	short	29946.00	29940.00	6.0	$12.00	be_lock_tick peaked+15.0pt gaveback_to+6.0pt	—
02:48 AM	llm	short	29924.00	29916.75	7.3	$14.50	rsi_extreme_exit(rsi=13)	—
03:48 AM	llm	long	29925.00	29935.00	10.0	$20.00	trend_ride_end:htf_flip	—
04:00 AM	llm	short	29866.50	29872.75	-6.3	$-12.50	ha10s_loss_cut	—
04:10 AM	llm	short	29873.75	29855.25	18.5	$37.00	overseer_cover	—
04:23 AM	llm	long	29913.25	29909.75	-3.5	$-7.00	ha10s_loss_cut	—
04:25 AM	llm	long	29920.25	29931.50	11.3	$22.50	trend_ride_end:htf_flip	—
04:27 AM	llm	long	29931.25	29928.00	-3.3	$-6.50	avgdown_stop:structure_against trend=-1 ev=CHOCH_UP (3.2pt)	—
04:43 AM	llm	long	29982.50	29979.50	-3.0	$-6.00	ha10s_loss_cut	—
04:44 AM	llm	long	29982.25	29975.25	-7.0	$-14.00	ha10s_loss_cut	—
04:45 AM	ribbon	long	29973.25	29994.25	21.0	$42.00	trend_ride_end:htf_flip	—
04:58 AM	trend_ma	long	30032.25	30023.00	-9.3	$-18.50	ha10s_loss_cut	—
05:38 AM	llm	long	30009.25	30005.25	-4.0	$-8.00	ha10s_loss_cut	—
05:39 AM	llm	long	30006.50	30002.50	-4.0	$-8.00	ha10s_loss_cut	—
05:42 AM	llm	long	30007.50	30002.25	-5.3	$-10.50	ha10s_loss_cut	—
05:43 AM	llm	long	30000.25	29981.25	-19.0	$-38.00	sma50_touch	—
05:58 AM	llm	short	29956.75	29951.50	5.3	$10.50	trend_ride_end:sma_invalidate	—
06:14 AM	llm	short	29933.25	29938.50	-5.3	$-10.50	ha10s_loss_cut	—
06:39 AM	llm	long	30000.75	29997.75	-3.0	$-6.00	ha10s_loss_cut	—
06:40 AM	ribbon	long	29995.00	29984.25	-10.8	$-21.50	ha10s_loss_cut	—
06:56 AM	llm	long	29989.75	29986.75	-3.0	$-6.00	ha10s_loss_cut	—
06:57 AM	llm	long	29987.50	29999.50	12.0	$24.00	be_lock_tick peaked+20.2pt gaveback_to+12.0pt	—
07:11 AM	llm	long	29991.00	29997.50	6.5	$13.00	be_lock_tick peaked+15.0pt gaveback_to+6.5pt	—
07:12 AM	llm	long	29998.25	29983.00	-15.3	$-30.50	sma50_touch	—
07:25 AM	llm	long	30011.25	30007.25	-4.0	$-8.00	ha10s_loss_cut	—
07:26 AM	llm	long	30011.00	30006.25	-4.8	$-9.50	ha10s_loss_cut	—
07:57 AM	llm	long	30043.00	30043.00	0.0	$0.00	overseer_cover	—
07:58 AM	llm	long	30043.75	30042.25	6.5	$26.00	llm_rescue_exit:Price broke below EMA50, HA red x9 susta	—
08:04 AM	llm	long	30080.75	30074.50	-6.3	$-12.50	ha10s_loss_cut	—
08:05 AM	llm	long	30074.50	30093.75	19.3	$38.50	be_lock_tick peaked+35.2pt gaveback_to+19.2pt	—
09:50 AM	llm	long	30194.50	30213.25	18.8	$37.50	be_lock_tick peaked+64.2pt gaveback_to+18.8pt	—
10:00 AM	llm	long	30248.25	30238.75	-9.5	$-19.00	ha10s_loss_cut	—
10:01 AM	llm	long	30265.75	30282.75	17.0	$34.00	be_lock_tick peaked+26.0pt gaveback_to+17.0pt	—
10:13 AM	llm	long	30248.50	30244.50	-4.0	$-8.00	ha10s_loss_cut	—
10:14 AM	llm	long	30217.50	30198.25	-19.3	$-38.50	ha10s_loss_cut	—
11:36 AM	llm	long	29800.50	29796.00	-4.5	$-9.00	ha10s_loss_cut	—
11:37 AM	llm	long	29806.00	29802.75	-3.3	$-6.50	ha10s_loss_cut	—
11:50 AM	llm	short	29692.75	29686.25	6.5	$13.00	be_lock_tick peaked+15.2pt gaveback_to+6.5pt	—
11:51 AM	llm	short	29694.75	29706.75	-12.0	$-24.00	ha10s_loss_cut	—
11:52 AM	llm	short	29669.25	29655.75	13.5	$27.00	be_lock_tick peaked+22.5pt gaveback_to+13.5pt	—
12:08 PM	llm	short	29607.25	29594.50	12.8	$25.50	be_lock_tick peaked+21.0pt gaveback_to+12.8pt	—
01:20 PM	llm	short	29431.50	29446.00	-14.5	$-29.00	ha10s_loss_cut	—
01:21 PM	llm	short	29457.25	29451.00	6.3	$12.50	be_lock_tick peaked+15.8pt gaveback_to+6.2pt	—
01:27 PM	llm	short	29441.00	29441.00	0.0	$0.00	overseer_cover	—
01:28 PM	llm	short	29440.75	29446.25	-5.5	$-11.00	ha10s_loss_cut	—
02:27 PM	llm	long	29469.25	29478.75	9.5	$19.00	be_lock_tick peaked+18.5pt gaveback_to+9.5pt	—
02:28 PM	llm	long	29481.50	29472.50	-9.0	$-18.00	ha10s_loss_cut	—
03:03 PM	llm	short	29454.75	29403.00	51.8	$103.50	rsi_extreme_exit(rsi=21)	—
03:10 PM	ribbon	short	29401.00	29402.25	6.6	$26.50	be_lock_tick peaked+15.1pt gaveback_to+6.6pt	—
03:18 PM	llm	short	29392.00	29399.25	-7.3	$-14.50	overseer_cover	—

QQQ Options (tos_bot)

QQQ Net P/L

$0.00

Round trips

Wins / Losses

0 / 0

Market: MNQ day window: low 29330.00 high 30319.25 range 989.25 (526 1-min bars)

Signals: none

Trades: 0 round trips (0 wins / 0 losses) | A/B: scalper(real) net est $0 vs managed-shadow(sim) realized $-1999 / equity $-1999

P/L: FIFO net est $0.00 from fill lines — duplicate-echo fills may skew; broker statement is authoritative

Incidents: none

Stocks — QQQ / SPCX (stock_bot)

QQQ Net P/L

$-1033.65

SPCX Net P/L

$380.99

Bot	Trades	Win%	Net P/L	Best	Worst	Broker
QQQ	5	80.0%	$-1033.65	$38.51	$-1164.26	alpaca-paper
SPCX	14	100.0%	$380.99	$31.66	$22.68	alpaca-paper

Bot	Symbol	Entry	In	Out	Exit	Shares	Adds	P/L
QQQ	QQQ	—	724.050	726.740	08:14 AM	10	0	$26.90
QQQ	QQQ	—	725.018	728.869	09:51 AM	10	3	$38.51
QQQ	QQQ	—	725.720	729.500	09:52 AM	10	2	$37.80
QQQ	QQQ	—	726.890	729.630	09:52 AM	10	1	$27.40
QQQ	QQQ	—	721.250	712.295	03:55 PM	130	12	$-1164.26
SPCX	SPCX	—	157.500	160.300	08:37 AM	10	0	$28.00
SPCX	SPCX	—	156.721	159.468	02:44 PM	10	12	$27.47
SPCX	SPCX	—	156.837	159.274	02:44 PM	10	11	$24.37
SPCX	SPCX	—	156.880	159.410	02:49 PM	10	10	$25.30
SPCX	SPCX	—	156.810	159.300	02:50 PM	10	9	$24.90
SPCX	SPCX	—	156.770	159.740	03:29 PM	10	8	$29.70
SPCX	SPCX	—	156.691	159.820	03:29 PM	10	7	$31.29
SPCX	SPCX	—	157.120	160.050	03:31 PM	10	6	$29.30
SPCX	SPCX	—	157.154	160.320	03:31 PM	10	5	$31.66
SPCX	SPCX	—	157.650	160.450	03:32 PM	10	4	$28.00
SPCX	SPCX	—	157.600	160.520	03:32 PM	10	3	$29.20
SPCX	SPCX	—	158.128	160.560	03:33 PM	10	2	$24.32
SPCX	SPCX	—	158.090	160.570	03:33 PM	10	1	$24.80
SPCX	SPCX	—	159.142	161.410	03:55 PM	10	0	$22.68

Recent Sessions

Date	Trades	Win%	PF	Net P/L
2026-08-12	34	35.3%	0.29	$-1150.00
2026-08-11	28	21.4%	0.4	$-741.50
2026-08-10	18	16.7%	0.03	$-1030.00
2026-08-07	15	26.7%	0.05	$-512.00
2026-08-06	25	32%	1.07	$52.00
2026-08-05	19	26.3%	0.32	$-440.50
2026-08-04	16	31.2%	5.55	$1641.00
2026-08-03	23	30.4%	0.67	$-244.00
2026-07-31	25	36%	0.67	$-303.00
2026-07-30	62	54.8%	1.1	$102.50
2026-07-29	49	49%	0.14	$-3827.00
2026-07-28	68	51.5%	39.88	$41254.50
2026-07-27	49	59.2%	1.25	$152.00
2026-07-24	54	48.1%	0.68	$-305.50
2026-07-23	53	49.1%	0.88	$-94.00
2026-07-22	31	51.6%	0.65	$-157.50
2026-07-21	49	38.8%	0.31	$-1243.50
2026-07-20	15	46.7%	0.3	$-502.50
2026-07-17	11	36.4%	0.42	$-202.00
2026-07-16	72	43.1%	0.5	$-696.50
2026-07-15	46	65.2%	1.44	$361.50
2026-07-14	212	49.5%	0.84	$-445.00
2026-07-13	57	64.9%	1.26	$133.50
2026-07-03	39	35.9%	0.62	$-188.00
2026-07-02	77	36.4%	0.91	$-67.00
2026-07-01	45	37.8%	0.73	$-134.00
2026-06-30	53	39.6%	0.84	$-120.00
2026-06-29	39	51.3%	1.35	$589.00
2026-06-26	22	54.5%	0.92	$-139.00
2026-06-25	54	42.6%	1.08	$110.00