Trading Report

Session 2026-07-01 Β· signal_gen MNQ Β· updated daily after 17:00 ET

Events: Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks; ISM Manufacturing PMI
down, high-vol, MNQ move -450.8pt, range 539.5pt
Net P/L
$-134.00
Trades
45
Win rate
37.8%
Profit factor
0.73
Best / Worst
$70.00 / $-85.50
Avg hold
6m

SPX Close Prediction Β· from 0DTE option flow (GEX/P-C) Β· butterfly body

Predicted close
7490.0
Range (wings)
7490.0 – 7490.0
Actual close
7486.4
Error
3.6 pt

Butterfly: center the body near 7490.0, wings around 7490.0/7490.0. Per-source levels β€” v82: 7490.0/7490.0 Β· v83: 7490.0/7490.0 Β· v51a: 7491.6/7486.6.

DatePredictedRangeActualError (pt)
2026-10-127807.57805.0 – 7810.07806.51.0
2026-10-097810.07810.0 – 7810.07810.50.5
2026-10-087765.07765.0 – 7765.07766.81.8
2026-10-077800.07785.0 – 7805.07801.51.5
2026-10-067820.07816.0 – 7825.97819.20.8
2026-10-057775.07771.7 – 7776.67773.91.1
2026-10-027722.57693.4 – 7743.07722.90.4
2026-10-017665.67663.1 – 7670.07665.10.5
2026-09-307662.57648.1 – 7665.07652.69.9
2026-09-297672.57665.0 – 7680.07669.33.2
2026-09-287685.07682.9 – 7687.97683.91.1
2026-09-257740.97670.0 – 7745.07743.62.7
2026-09-247705.07702.6 – 7707.67704.40.6
2026-09-237702.57700.0 – 7708.47704.92.5
2026-09-227765.57765.0 – 7770.07765.50.0

Market Analysis

InstrumentCloseChange%RangeTrendSupportResistanceNote
SPX7483.234.40.06%72.2rangebound74907490S&P 500 cash index (Yahoo); GEX walls 7490.0/7490.0
ES7532.75-10.5-0.14%73.3rangeboundβ€”β€”S&P 500 future (Yahoo ES=F)
NQ/MNQ30066.00-450.8-1.48%539.5downβ€”β€”Nasdaq-100 future MNQU6
NDX29809.13-105.2-0.35%297.4downβ€”β€”Nasdaq-100 cash index (Yahoo)

Signals vs Orders

Signals taken
52
Suppressed
89
Gate vetoes
0
TimeDirModuleSuppressed byHypo +15mHypo +60mDetail
08:03 PMlong+1cooldown 38s<60s$0.50$-23.50+1 llm_trigger Uptrend HH, dip to EMA13 reclaimed, fresh new hi
08:26 PMβ€”-1?β€”β€”-1 ribbon_stack_dn(age=1)
08:32 PMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$15.50$117.50-1 rsi_fade short rsi=70
09:52 PMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=21 (eve)
02:06 AMshort-1cooldown 49s<60s$59.50$137.50-1 llm_trigger Downtrend intact, rejected at EMA13/50, breaking
02:24 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=21 (eve)
02:27 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=24 (eve)
03:01 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=27 (eve)
03:18 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=18 (eve)
03:21 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=24 (eve)
06:08 AMlong+1cooldown 38s<60s$42.00$103.50+1 golden_cross sma50x200 | llm-ok
07:08 AMshort-1counter_trend vs SMA50x200=+1$62.00$162.00-1 rsi_fade short rsi=79
09:15 AMshort-1cooldown 46s<60s$22.00$-43.50-1 llm_trigger Downtrend (5m SMA50 down); rally rejected at EMA
09:19 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$-342.00$8.50+1 llm_trigger Higher-low vs 08:54 low, HA green flip, reclaimi
09:20 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$-347.00$-10.00+1 llm_trigger Higher-low vs 08:54 low, HA green flip, reclaimi
09:48 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.65$135.00$-66.00+1 llm_trigger Oversold bounce off session low reclaiming EMA13
09:49 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.65$111.50$-44.50+1 llm_trigger Oversold bounce off session low reclaiming EMA13
09:50 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.65$154.50$14.50+1 llm_trigger Oversold bounce off session low reclaiming EMA13
10:01 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.62$-41.50$-156.50+1 llm_trigger V-bottom reversal off session low, HA flipped gr
10:02 AMlong+1cooldown 36s<60s$83.00$-55.50+1 llm_trigger V-bottom reversal off session low, HA flipped gr
10:06 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 llm_trigger Sharp reversal off session low, HH/HL structure,
10:07 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 llm_trigger Sharp reversal off session low, HH/HL structure,
10:08 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 llm_trigger Sharp reversal off session low, HH/HL structure,
10:12 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.65$-24.50$-133.00+1 llm_trigger Sharp reversal off lows, HA green reclaim, RSI67
10:13 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.65$-77.50$-124.00+1 llm_trigger Sharp reversal off lows, HA green reclaim, RSI67
10:14 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.65$-58.00$-105.00+1 llm_trigger Sharp reversal off lows, HA green reclaim, RSI67
10:21 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.65$-94.50$69.50+1 llm_trigger Sharp reversal off 30120 low, HHs, pulled back t
10:22 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.65$-81.50$66.00+1 llm_trigger Sharp reversal off 30120 low, HHs, pulled back t
10:27 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 llm_trigger Uptrend off O/N low, pulled back to EMA13(30293)
10:39 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$-72.00$91.00+1 llm_trigger Bounced off range-low 30216, reclaiming EMA13, H
10:40 AMlong+1cooldown 31s<60s$-124.00$57.00+1 llm_trigger Bounced off range-low 30216, reclaiming EMA13, H
10:41 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$-129.00$94.50+1 llm_trigger Bounced off range-low 30216, reclaiming EMA13, H
10:54 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$-9.00$26.00+1 llm_trigger Higher low vs 30126, reclaiming EMA13 after HA g
10:55 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$23.00$44.00+1 llm_trigger Higher low vs 30126, reclaiming EMA13 after HA g
10:56 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$55.50$91.50+1 llm_trigger Higher low vs 30126, reclaiming EMA13 after HA g
11:15 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$148.50$-71.00+1 llm_trigger Bounced off 30148 low, pulled to EMA13/50, recla
11:16 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$137.00$-93.00+1 llm_trigger Bounced off 30148 low, pulled to EMA13/50, recla
11:17 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$124.00$-48.50+1 llm_trigger Bounced off 30148 low, pulled to EMA13/50, recla
11:18 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$72.50$-104.50+1 llm_trigger Uptrend, HA green x5, RSI63 no divergence, above
11:19 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$35.00$-89.50+1 llm_trigger Uptrend, HA green x5, RSI63 no divergence, above
11:31 AMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 ribbon_stack_up(age=1)
11:38 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$-55.00$-102.00+1 golden_cross sma50x200 | llm-ok
11:39 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$-123.50$-166.00+1 golden_cross sma50x200
11:42 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$-90.50$-176.50+1 ict_long sweep<30286 reclaim30298 rsi43 div
11:43 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$-97.00$-202.50+1 golden_cross sma50x200
11:44 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$-57.50$-128.50+1 golden_cross sma50x200
11:45 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$-85.50$-174.50+1 golden_cross sma50x200
11:46 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$-74.50$-141.50+1 golden_cross sma50x200 | llm-ok
11:47 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$-37.50$-105.00+1 golden_cross sma50x200 | llm-ok
11:48 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$-34.00$-90.50+1 golden_cross sma50x200 | llm-ok
11:49 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$-62.50$-115.50+1 golden_cross sma50x200 | llm-ok
11:50 AMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$-20.50$-45.50+1 golden_cross sma50x200 | llm-ok
12:05 PMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$29.50$-155.50+1 llm_trigger Rally off 30126 low pulled back to EMA13, RSI re
12:06 PMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$36.50$-146.00+1 llm_trigger Rally off 30126 low pulled back to EMA13, RSI re
12:07 PMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$23.00$-139.00+1 llm_trigger Rally off 30126 low pulled back to EMA13, RSI re
12:11 PMβ€”-1?β€”β€”-1 ribbon_stack_dn(age=1)
12:14 PMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$0.00$-93.00+1 llm_trigger Higher-low bounce off 30238, reclaiming EMA13/50
12:15 PMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$8.50$-89.00+1 llm_trigger Higher-low bounce off 30238, reclaiming EMA13/50
12:16 PMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$45.50$-58.00+1 llm_trigger Higher-low bounce off 30238, reclaiming EMA13/50
12:20 PMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$-27.50$-72.50+1 llm_trigger AM-low bounce pulled back to EMA13, HA reclaimin
12:21 PMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$-28.00$-80.50+1 llm_trigger AM-low bounce pulled back to EMA13, HA reclaimin
12:22 PMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$-32.50$-67.50+1 llm_trigger AM-low bounce pulled back to EMA13, HA reclaimin
12:23 PMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$-45.00$-70.00+1 llm_trigger Reclaiming EMA13/50 after dip, HA green x5, RSI
12:24 PMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$-105.50$-82.50+1 llm_trigger Reclaiming EMA13/50 after dip, HA green x5, RSI
12:25 PMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$-88.50$-85.50+1 llm_trigger Reclaiming EMA13/50 after dip, HA green x5, RSI
12:26 PMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$-97.50$-73.50+1 llm_trigger Uptrend, reclaimed EMA13/50, RSI63 not overbough
12:27 PMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$-118.00$-90.50+1 llm_trigger Uptrend, reclaimed EMA13/50, RSI63 not overbough
12:28 PMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$-103.50$-93.50+1 llm_trigger Uptrend, reclaimed EMA13/50, RSI63 not overbough
12:35 PMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 llm_trigger Range bounce off 30228 low, reclaimed EMA13/50,
12:36 PMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 llm_trigger Range bounce off 30228 low, reclaimed EMA13/50,
12:37 PMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 llm_trigger Range bounce off 30228 low, reclaimed EMA13/50,
12:48 PMshort-1cooldown 56s<60s$112.50$107.00-1 death_cross sma50x200 | llm-ok
01:18 PMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$3.00$-96.00+1 llm_trigger Range-low bounce off 30166, reclaimed EMA13, RSI
01:19 PMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$15.50$-53.00+1 llm_trigger Range-low bounce off 30166, reclaimed EMA13, RSI
01:20 PMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$-40.50$-101.00+1 llm_trigger Range-low bounce off 30166, reclaimed EMA13, RSI
01:21 PMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$-49.00$-98.00+1 llm_trigger Reclaimed EMA13/50 off held range support, HA fl
01:22 PMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$-22.50$-110.50+1 llm_trigger Reclaimed EMA13/50 off held range support, HA fl
01:23 PMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$-42.50$-133.00+1 llm_trigger Reclaimed EMA13/50 off held range support, HA fl
01:27 PMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$-64.50$-110.50+1 llm_trigger Uptrend, HH's, RSI65 no divergence, minor pullba
01:28 PMlong+1news_gate BEARISH c=0.6$-56.50$-115.50+1 llm_trigger Uptrend, HH's, RSI65 no divergence, minor pullba
03:36 PMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 ribbon_stack_up(age=1)
03:58 PMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=19 (eve)
03:59 PMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=29 (eve)
04:01 PMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=26 (eve)
04:02 PMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=22 (eve)
04:03 PMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=23 (eve)
04:04 PMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=23 (eve)
04:05 PMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=22 (eve)
04:06 PMβ€”+1?β€”β€”+1 rsi_fade long rsi=21 (eve)

Missed Opportunities & Trend Check

WindowaipredictionOur resultMoveMissed $ReasonNote
sessionbearishloss-450.8β€”missed_down_trendaiprediction trend=bearish, actual MNQ move=-450.8pt (down); our session net=$-134.0 (loss)

Trades (45)

EntryStratDirInOutPtsP/LExitGradeLesson
06:17 PMllmlong30529.7530530.000.3$0.50trend_ride_end:sma_invalidateβ€”
06:20 PMllmlong30532.7530527.00-5.8$-11.50ha10s_loss_cutβ€”
06:21 PMllmlong30527.5030531.504.0$8.00trend_ride_end:sma_invalidateβ€”
06:42 PMselloffshort30514.7530533.25-18.5$-74.00selloff_rsi30_coverβ€”
08:00 PMllmlong30549.2530543.00-6.3$-12.50ha10s_loss_cutβ€”
08:32 PMllmlong30541.5030535.00-6.5$-13.00avgdown_stop:structure_against trend=-1 ev=- (6.5pt)β€”
08:37 PMllmlong30543.5030540.00-3.5$-7.00ha10s_loss_cutβ€”
08:38 PMllmlong30542.5030539.50-3.0$-6.00ha10s_loss_cutβ€”
08:54 PMllmlong30533.7530532.50-1.3$-2.50sma50_touchβ€”
10:49 PMllmlong30433.0030434.251.3$2.50trend_ride_end:htf_flipβ€”
10:51 PMllmlong30429.0030433.754.8$9.50trend_ride_end:htf_flipβ€”
11:46 PMllmlong30465.7530468.753.0$6.00trend_ride_end:htf_flipβ€”
12:01 AMselloffshort30448.7530438.5010.3$41.00selloff_rsi30_coverβ€”
02:03 AMllmshort30412.7530419.75-7.0$-14.00ha10s_loss_cutβ€”
04:04 AMllmshort30339.2530342.50-3.3$-6.50ha10s_loss_cutβ€”
04:10 AMselloffshort30353.0030340.7512.3$49.00selloff_rsi30_coverβ€”
05:57 AMtrend_malong30382.5030375.75-6.8$-13.50ha10s_loss_cutβ€”
06:04 AMtrend_malong30378.2530374.50-3.8$-7.50ha10s_loss_cutβ€”
06:05 AMtrend_malong30379.5030372.75-6.8$-13.50ha10s_loss_cutβ€”
06:20 AMllmlong30392.7530387.50-5.3$-10.50ha10s_loss_cutβ€”
06:34 AMllmlong30394.2530367.75-26.5$-53.00ha10s_loss_cutβ€”
06:49 AMllmlong30396.7530405.508.8$17.50be_lock_tick peaked+17.5pt gaveback_to+8.8ptβ€”
07:17 AMllmlong30416.5030407.75-8.8$-17.50llm_rescue_exit:HA flipped red at breakeven after stall β€”
07:27 AMllmlong30410.7530409.75-1.0$-2.00avgdown_stop:structure_against trend=-1 ev=- (1.0pt)β€”
08:23 AMllmlong30384.7530381.50-3.3$-6.50ha10s_loss_cutβ€”
08:24 AMllmlong30387.0030382.00-5.0$-10.00ha10s_loss_cutβ€”
09:09 AMllmshort30261.2530266.50-5.3$-10.50ha10s_loss_cutβ€”
09:10 AMllmshort30261.7530254.257.5$15.00be_lock_tick peaked+16.5pt gaveback_to+7.5ptβ€”
09:15 AMllmshort30257.2530260.50-3.3$-6.50ha10s_loss_cutβ€”
09:16 AMllmshort30263.0030305.75-42.8$-85.50sma50_touchβ€”
09:27 AMllmshort30251.2530230.5020.8$41.50rsi_extreme_exit(rsi=26)β€”
09:59 AMllmlong30282.5030293.5011.0$22.00be_lock_tick peaked+21.8pt gaveback_to+11.0ptβ€”
10:22 AMllmlong30300.5030292.00-8.5$-17.00ha10s_loss_cutβ€”
10:36 AMllmshort30229.5030253.50-24.0$-48.00ha10s_loss_cutβ€”
10:37 AMllmshort30254.2530247.756.5$13.00be_lock_tick peaked+16.2pt gaveback_to+6.5ptβ€”
12:39 PMtrend_mashort30221.0030224.25-3.3$-6.50ha10s_loss_cutβ€”
12:40 PMtrend_mashort30223.2530214.259.0$18.00be_lock_tick peaked+17.5pt gaveback_to+9.0ptβ€”
12:41 PMtrend_mashort30212.5030210.002.5$5.00rsi_extreme_exit(rsi=21)β€”
12:43 PMtrend_mashort30208.2530223.75-15.5$-31.00ha10s_loss_cutβ€”
12:44 PMtrend_mashort30222.0030213.009.0$18.00be_lock_tick peaked+17.2pt gaveback_to+9.0ptβ€”
01:57 PMllmshort30177.5030160.2517.3$34.50rsi_extreme_exit(rsi=25)β€”
02:01 PMllmshort30176.0030181.50-5.5$-11.00llm_rescue_exit:HA green x4 + MACD cross up against shorβ€”
02:07 PMllmshort30175.7530179.75-4.0$-8.00ha10s_loss_cutβ€”
02:08 PMllmshort30183.7530183.750.0$0.00overseer_coverβ€”
03:50 PMribbonshort30148.0030113.0035.0$70.00rsi_extreme_exit(rsi=29)β€”

QQQ Options (tos_bot)

QQQ Net P/L
$0.00
Round trips
0
Wins / Losses
0 / 0

Market: MNQ day window: low 30011.25 high 30402.25 range 391.00 (526 1-min bars)

Signals: none

Trades: 0 round trips (0 wins / 0 losses) | A/B: scalper(real) net est $0 vs managed-shadow(sim) realized $-1591 / equity $-1591

P/L: FIFO net est $0.00 from fill lines β€” duplicate-echo fills may skew; broker statement is authoritative

Incidents: none

Stocks β€” QQQ / SPCX (stock_bot)

QQQ Net P/L
$-193.00
SPCX Net P/L
$-148.70
BotTradesWin%Net P/LBestWorstBroker
QQQ977.8%$-193.00$41.80$-240.55alpaca-paper
SPCX10.0%$-148.70$-148.70$-148.70alpaca-paper
BotSymbolEntryInOutExitSharesAddsP/L
QQQQQQβ€”727.511731.14910:12 AM1011$36.38
QQQQQQβ€”727.375730.92010:12 AM1010$35.45
QQQQQQβ€”727.330731.25111:21 AM1011$39.21
QQQQQQβ€”727.108730.98411:21 AM1010$38.76
QQQQQQβ€”727.260731.33511:23 AM109$40.75
QQQQQQβ€”727.640731.43011:30 AM108$37.90
QQQQQQβ€”727.480731.66011:32 AM107$41.80
QQQQQQβ€”728.765725.91003:55 PM7811$-222.70
QQQQQQβ€”731.685725.95703:55 PM424$-240.55
SPCXSPCXβ€”172.350157.48003:55 PM100$-148.70

Recent Sessions

DateTradesWin%PFNet P/L
2026-10-121100%β€”$50.50
2026-10-0910%0$-134.50
2026-10-0810%0$-162.00
2026-10-0610%0$-159.00
2026-10-051100%β€”$234.00
2026-10-0210%0$-251.50
2026-09-3010%0$-42.00
2026-09-2970%0$-405.50
2026-09-25714.3%0.02$-558.50
2026-09-2470%0$-427.50
2026-09-1610%0$-1055.00
2026-09-0210%0$-164.50
2026-08-28714.3%0.18$-247.00
2026-08-27837.5%0.52$-134.50
2026-08-26560%2.66$207.50
2026-08-25742.9%0.37$-98.50
2026-08-24616.7%0.34$-165.50
2026-08-21540%0.23$-76.00
2026-08-201625%0.11$-503.00
2026-08-19128.3%0.01$-394.50
2026-08-182227.3%0.75$-182.50
2026-08-17714.3%0.17$-210.00
2026-08-142615.4%0.55$-286.50
2026-08-131947.4%3.21$580.00
2026-08-123435.3%0.29$-1150.00
2026-08-112821.4%0.4$-741.50
2026-08-101816.7%0.03$-1030.00
2026-08-071526.7%0.05$-512.00
2026-08-062532%1.07$52.00
2026-08-051926.3%0.32$-440.50